The monsoon 2021 didn't turn out as expected earlier.
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Monsoon 2021 - India may face a drought in 2021
- The story: The years 2019 and 2020 were excellent for Indian monsoon, and so it was predicted for 2021 too. But drought conditions are on the horizon as total monsoon rainfall since the season began on June 1, 2021, were 10% below normal.
- What stats show: IMD data showed abysmal rains in August — the worst in recorded history — and a weak July, leading to 36% of India by acreage not receiving adequate rainfall. There was a 28% deficit in August alone, the lowest rainfall India has received since the IMD began keeping such records in 1901. This has culminated in a near-drought situation during the monsoon season, which provides 70% of India’s annual rainfall.
- Terminology: The IMD officially stopped using the term ‘drought’ in 2016 and replaced it by ‘deficient’. It says a drought year is when rainfall across the country is below 10% and when 20-40% of the total land area is seeing inadequate rainfall.
- Out of IMD’s four subdivisions: northwest, east and northeast, central (which includes western states), and southern peninsular, only the south has seen above normal rainfall (+3%) since June 1; the other three are facing double-digit deficits. Gujarat (-48%), Odisha (-31%), and Kerala (-28%) have been the worst affected across all states, with uneven and erratic rainfall across the country.
- Monsoon winds seem to have lost strength over most of India since 25th August, which may hurt kharif sowing, which was already lagging behind last year’s numbers due to the break phases that thwarted the sowing patterns.
- On August 8, 2021, sowing was down 2% year-on-year. The Ministry of Agriculture has not released updated sowing numbers since August 8, but invariably these numbers will have tumbled further. Experts aren’t worried about the situation just yet as sowing windows for some crops are open for a while yet.
- Foodgrain production: The alternative assessment of rainfall performance — ie, rainfall weighted by foodgrain production at the state level, has fared better throughout the season so far. If rainfall does make a comeback in September or witnesses a lagged withdrawal, it would augur well for moisture levels in soil and in turn Rabi sowing. This marks the third break phase in the monsoon this season already, with the first two lasting for 20 and 17 days, respectively.
- Earlier prediction: The IMD had earlier predicted a normal monsoon, due to which the Centre was expecting a record harvest. Both 2019 and 2010 had seen well above normal rainfall on favourable global meteorological conditions. The Long Period Average (LPA) of the four-month southwest monsoon season that starts from June is 88 centimeters.
- Knowledge centre:
- Long Period Average (LPA) - LPA is the average rainfall received as a whole during the south-west monsoon, for a 50-year period. The current LPA is 88 cm (earlier 89 cm), based on the average rainfall over years 1951 and 2000. This acts as a benchmark against which the rainfall in any monsoon season is measured. The country is said to have received "deficient rainfall" if the actual rainfall falls below 90 per cent of LPA. The country is said to have received "excess rainfall" if the rainfall is greater than 110 per cent of LPA. It is deemed "normal" when the actual rainfall received falls between 96 and 104 per cent of LPA. The LPA uses a 50-year average because annual rainfall can be highly variable, thanks to the whimsical rain gods. A 50-year average is expected to smooth out the day-to-day, month-to-month variations, while also accounting for freak weather events like the El Nino and La Nina.
- Monsoon - A monsoon is a seasonal change in the direction of the prevailing, or strongest, winds of a region. Monsoons cause wet and dry seasons throughout much of the tropics. Monsoons are most often associated with the Indian Ocean. The summer monsoon is associated with heavy rainfall. It usually happens between April and September. As winter ends, warm, moist air from the southwest Indian Ocean blows toward countries like India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. The summer monsoon brings a humid climate and torrential rainfall to these areas. The Indian Oceans winter monsoon, which lasts from October to April, is less well-known than its rainy summer equivalent. The dry winter monsoon blows from the northeast. These winds start in the air above Mongolia and northwestern China.
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the need to predict monsoon rains in India. How is it linked with economic fortunes of the country? (2) Explain the concept of LPA in monsoon. (3) What are the IPCC predictions for coming decades, for change in monsoon? Explain.
#Monsoon #IndianEconomy #LPA #LongPeriodAverage #Drought #Kharif
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