Protecting the poor from becoming poorer (COVID-19 can devastate the Indian poor)

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 Protecting the poor from becoming poorer (COVID-19 can devastate the Indian poor)

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• Containing COVID-19: Governments across the world are prioritising public health, and lockdowns are the norm. But the economic cost of it is huge. The impact of COVID-19 is still unravelling, but the economic deprivations are visible already.
• Most vulnerable: To battle the COVID-19, the most vulnerable sections are being asked to sacrifice proportionately much more, thereby creating a huge short-term and long-term cost for them.
• Poor nations hit hardest: Nations with low average incomes (and social groups with low incomes) are hit the hardest.

1. In the 1918 Spanish Flu, 5 to 10 crore people died globally, of which 1.8 crore died in India (6% of population). But US saw just 6.75 lakh deaths.
2. In COVID-19, a much higher death rate is seen in minorities in the US!

• Logic: Economically vulnerable groups have poor nutritional levels, and hence lower immunity. They live in crowded areas, where viruses can spread easily. They lack safe water, sanitation and healthcare too. And in such families, death of an earning member will be devastating.
• Survirors impacted: Epidemics impact survivors for a long time. Because cognitive abilities are affected, hence incomes as adults also are.

1. 'In Utero' impact is huge too - children born to influenza-affected American mothers were hit harder as per 1940s studies (less education, more diseases, less earnings)
2. COVID-19 is likely to have exactly similar inter-generational effects on vulnerable populations
3. Relief programmes must take all these into account

• Lockdown and economic downturn: Quite visibly (and through surveys), it can be seen that people have lost substantial incomes during the Indian lockdown (March-April). 

1. Economic downturns always are associated with livelihood losses, dietary intake loss, poor health care consumption, etc.
2. Pregnant women and children are deeply impacted.
3. School shutdowns is impacting children's nutritious meals (MDM) and children with poor in-utero nutrition or those missing out MDMs are likely to face problems as adults.

• What governments are doing: They have started free or subsidised food for low-wage households, and direct cash transfers to vulnerable citizens.

1. Impact of such relief measures depends on their size, their reach, and efficiency of delivery systems.
2. The one-off relief measures will end soon, but disabilities born out of health deprivations will last many years.

• Human capital is crucial: India will suffer from poor human resource quality 10 or 15 years down the line, due to the health challenges of today. So, focus on the long-term in addition to the short-term.
• Summary : The relief measures for pandemic are all short-term by nature, but the health deficiencies created will be long-lasting and impact India's human capital deeply.

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