At the edge of a new nuclear arms race (US may resume nuclear testing sparking a potential arms race)

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 At the edge of a new nuclear arms race (US may resume nuclear testing sparking a potential arms race)

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• A new American report: The US State Dept suspects (in a new report) that China may have started low yield nuclear tests at Lop Nur test site, violating the CTBT provisions. Even Russia may have done so, generating nuclear yields, and violating the zero yield norm of CTBT.  [CTBT - Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty]
• Story of CTBT: It came into being in 1996, but could not enter into force till date. The growing super-power rivalry could tear it apart now.
• Meaning of CTBT ban: During the Cold War, it was clear that a ban on nuclear testing would be the first step towards ending the arms race. 

1. A "Partial Test Ban Treaty" happened in 1963, and underwater and atmospheric tests were banned. So it went underground. 
2. By 1994, Cold War was over, USSR had split up, and main testing site now was in Kazakhstan (Semipalatinsk). 
3. Only one Arctic site remained. Then Russia and US declared moratorium on testing (after 1054 US tests and 715 Russian tests). 

• France and China: They said that CTBT did not ask for end of "nuclear deterrence" and hence they would continue testing. A CTBT that could allow low-yield testing (1/13th of Hiroshima bomb "Little Boy" at 15000 tonnes of TNT) was proposed, but rejected in face of resistance.
• Zero yield concept: Finally, the US proposed "comprehensive test ban" to mean "a zero yield test ban" that would ban all supercriticial hydro-nuclear tests (and not subcriticial hydrodynamic tests). All five nuclear powers agreed finally - US, UK, France, Russia and China.
• Entry-into-force provisions: India wanted the CTBT to be based on a disarmament framework. That was rejected. So India withdrew from negotiations in 1996. Now, a list of 44 countries was given whose ratification was essential for CTBT to enter into force, including India. Many signed, but did not ratify (including the US). So China didn't ratify either. North Korea, India and Pakistan didn't sign, and carried out tests after 1996. CTBT didn't enter into force.
• Global monitoring: A body called "CTBT Organisation - CTBTO" was set up in Vienna, to run a vast verification system worldwide with seismic, infrasound and underwater monitoring! US is its biggest funder!
• A new 2020s: Now US is not the unipolar superpower, and China and Russia are challenging it. US 'Nuclear Posture Review' says US must expand its nuclear weapons arsenal. Hence the $1.2 trillion plan for next 30 years. Nevada test site is being readied.
• Russia and China: Both are worried.

1. Russia sees the US lead in precision-strike as dangerous, and has responded by the hypersonic delivery systems
2. China wants to ensure survivability of its small nuclear arsenal
3. Both are investing in offensive cyber warfare abilities

• New START: This treaty (New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) between US and Russia is ending in 2021, and may not be renewed. China is resisting any such treaty, claiming US and Russia own 90% of nuclear arsenals. The US has also backed out from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), and the INF (Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces) treaty.
• What now: Given the fresh trade war and pandemic tension, the US may resume nuclear testing. If tensions intensify, a new Cold War will being, with a whole new nuclear arms race. 
• Summary : Rising tensions between major powers may indicate the commencement of a new Cold War and the arrival of a fresh nuclear arms race.

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