Is West Asia headed for war? (US versus Iran post Soleimani killing)

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 Is West Asia headed for war? (US versus Iran post Soleimani killing)

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• Iran vows revenge: The killing by drone-attack of Iran's top general Qassem Soleimani (of Qods, of the IRGC), has led to an angry Iran threatening revenge. Does that mean war in West Asia?
• Why kill Soleimani: General Qassem was the architect of Iran's foreign operations since 1998, when he took over the Qods force (of IRGC). 

1. He deepened links with Hezbollah and Badr organisation
2. He built new Shia militias lke Shia Popular Mobilisation Units and the Houthis (Yemen)
3. He was a very publicly visible face, and killing him was easy. But Trump's predecessors avoided it, as risk was too high.

• Chain of events: Through Nov-Dec 2019, a chain of violent events finally led to storming of the US embassy in Iraq, leading to killing of Soleimani. Trump administration had feared more attacks by Soleimani on US interests in West Asia.
• Shia militias on radar: The leader of PMF (Popular Mobilisation Force) Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis too was killed. It is an umbrella group (of pro-Iran Iraqi militias) which includes Kataib Hezbollah.

1. Kataib was created in 2014 to save the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and battle the ISIS in Iraq
2. PMF includes many groups - Kataib Hezbollah, Badr, Kataib al-Imam Ali
3. They gave Iran a good grip over Iraqi politics
4. PMF was key in beating back the ISIS, alongwith Iraqi Army, and US air support!
5. Death of ISIS led to renewed tensions between Iran and US (as it pulled out of the nuclear deal), and PMF started hitting US targets! 

• US reaction: In Sept 2019, the US consulate in Basra, Iraq was shut down due to repeated gunfire attacks. Sanctions on Iran were raised even further. Attacks on US targets grew. But on 28-Dec-2019, an attack claimed the life of an American civilian contractor, angering Trump.
• Iraq's approach: It is caught between Iran and the US.

1. US toppled Saddam Hussein after the 2003 attack, and became a security partner for Iraq (5000 US troops in Iraq today)
2. Shia politicians of Iraq have deep links with Iran, the powerful neighbour
3. Shia militias inside Iraq are powerful, and take orders from Iran
4. US kept attacking Shia militias inside Iraq without permission of Iraqi govt (angering it)

• Make a choice: So the Iraqi government has to now choose between Iran and the US, while preserving its own dignity and sovereignty. Will it expel US forces?
• What about the war: US wants de-escalation now, and no war. With Iran's top commander gone, the regime has to do something to prove it's serious about self-preservation (and top leaders' lives). Iran's deterrence could not stop Trump this time, giving Iran a chance to escalate.
• What if Iran does not escalate: US and Israel may attack in the future too, taking out other Iranian leaders. That's too big a risk for Iran.
• How to hit back: Iranian regime can

1. target US troops in Iraq by missiles or rockets
2. ask the Iranian proxies to target American assets
3. plan an asymmetric attack in future

• That can lead to a cycle of violence, and finally to war.
• Summary : After General Soleimani's killing, the Iranian regime will definitely strike back at the US targets in middle east, but it is not clear when and how.

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