The new facts on the ground for Kashmir

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 The new facts on the ground for Kashmir

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• Immediate implications of the decision : There will be many.

1. Counterinsurgency operations : Efficiency of such ops depends on human inputs from the ground. They may not improve, but deteriorate. A mere change in political and administrative setup does not mean more intelligence inputs.
2. Aggressive reaction by Pakistan : Any increase in local disaffection (anger) is always misused by Pakistan to stoke terrorism. Example : Operation Gibralter in August 1965, after major dilution in Article 370 was done.
3. Rigging of elections : The example cited that elections were rigged in 1987, and the Kashmiris lost trust in India, is correct. But now relying totally on militaristic tools may not work.

• What happened to Gilgit Baltistan : Pakistan needed to make the C.P.E.C. through it, and de facto turned the region into a separate province in 2009.  It was practically separated from rest of PoK. Today, India has not kept the integrity of the State intact (loss of moral high ground).
• The Ladakh case : Only Leh region wanted to become a UT, and the Shia population of Kargil has opposed it, due to possible Buddhist domination. That can lead to further disaffection. So counter that by wise counsel.
• Regional and ethnic aspirations : Since the state's ruling elite did little to tackle the regional and ethnic aspirations, India needs a system to help manage these at the five tiers - State, Regional, District, Block, Village.
• Political reservations : Despite 11.9% of state population being Scheduled Tribes (STs), the State Assembly never gave them official political reservations. The claim by H.M. is correct.
• Poverty not widespread : But the state has only 10.3% below the poverty line, compared to India average of 21.9%. So it is not widespread poverty.
• Impediments removed :

1. Land sale restrictions : Despite restrictons on land sale, many state govts have actually given land to non-Kashmiri investors on 99-year leases. Now all land sale is legal, to anyone. However, investments will flow only to Jammu in short term for security reasons.
2. Women's rights : Children born to women marrying citizens outside J&K can now inherit property. 
3. Descendants of partition refugees (many SCs) can now get employed, buy land and vote in new UT.

• Newer demands may arise : Newer demands of further divisions of the state may arise. The status of Kashmiri pandits is not immediately certain as security situation needs to be conducive first.
• Past and future : If the right lessons can be learnt from the past, many mistakes can be avoided in the future.
• Summary: In the complex history of Jammu and Kashmir, a major political decision will have long-lasting ramifications, both positive and mixed.

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