The challenge in the Pulwama attack (What can be India's complete strategy)

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 The challenge in the Pulwama attack (What can be India's complete strategy)

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• Very uncomfortable recently : Experts were reading signals from Pakistan in recent months. It was all about peace - the PM Imran Khan was talking about it, Army Chief Qamar Javed Bajwa was talking of peace, Kartarpur Corridor was accepted, and a so-called "Bajwa Doctrine" seemed to appear.
• Strange timing : How could this be true? India is headed for a major election, and no major strategic decisions can happen now. India's response was indeed lukewarm. Pakistan never gave a firm commitment to withdraw all support to cross-border terror.
• Pak and peace? Be suspicious : Whenever they talk of peace, we in India know something is unusual, and it's just a bait. The Pulwama attack was the worst in the near 30-year-long proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir.
• Two key issues :
1. Return of the car bomb and IED : It was predicted since 2017, and it happened. Last such IED attack was in 2008, on a military bus. Last car bomb attack was in 2004. Perhaps the rampant use of these in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan gave a push. The suicide bomber (not suicide fighter) also came from Pakistan, with religiously radicalised young men willing to do it. Pak knows that India has neutralised a lot many terrorists in past 2 years in J&K, and this event reduces that domination by limiting freedom of  movement.
2. Pakistan's self-confidence is growing : Despite many adverse factors, Pakistan has not internally collapsed. Adverse factors – 
1. The FATF (Financial Action Task Force) surveillance,
2. Reduced forex reserves, 
3. Failing economy. But the support of China and the need of USA in seeking help in Afghanistan has changed everything. Donald Trump made Pak very important by one decision alone.
• Pulwama is the first sign of it : The Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) sponsored attack is the first sign of Pakistan's newly found confidence. Lot of planning went into the attack, and Pakistan knew that the state of equipment for Indian Armed forces (overall) is not upto the mark as on date. So, any immediate retaliation was ruled out (by Indian Army). And Pak must be assuming (wrongly) that terrorism will get a new push.
• Options for Indian government : The PM publicly announced that the Indian Army has the liberty to choose the modus of a response to it. What options do we have?
• Diplomatic : We are already doing it, but we have to do it much longer, and other than the capitals of nations, we have to reach out to think tanks and media as well.
1. MFN status : That has been withdrawn already. 
2. Indus Water treaty : That option remains open. (to control flows)
3. Covert operations : They can continue for a long time.
4. Surgical strikes : These can be more intense than the last time, and against Pak Army bases (in addition to terror bases) and using air power too.
5. Ground based response : Like earlier times, restricted only to J&K. In all these, Pakistan will definitely respond.
• Be cool-headed : Our national security needs deep thinking now, beyond election optics. But two things are most important -

1. Political consensus, and
2. Internal social cohesion.

• Do not vilify minorities : We cannot win such battles if we continue targeting Kashmiris across India, and vilifying minorities on social media. 
• Summary : India's response to the Pulawama terror attack has to be robust, well-thought through, and backed by effective internal social cohesion in the nation, as we are up against a self-confident Pakistan now.

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