Next stage in the Great Game (No defeatism in Afghanistan please, India)

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 Next stage in the Great Game (No defeatism in Afghanistan please, India)

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• Indian grief : As global leaders are talking with the Taliban intensely, Indian foreign policy has gone from denial to shocked acceptance. India has seen US, Russia, UAE, Qatar and KSA talk with Pakistan on this matter, and did protest a lot (of being left out).
• The shocking truth today : Those talks have progressed well, and are being considered over every other process in Afghanistan.
• What all is going on : The US envoy (Zalmay Khalilzad) recently discussed with the Taliban at Doha. Various agreements being discussed are -

1. Withdrawal of foreign forces
2. Not allowing foreign terror groups to operate from Afg'tan
3. Comprehensive ceasefire (low priority)
4. Intra-Afghan dialogue (low priority)

• The elected govt. of Afg'tan has criticised the US for delegitimising it.
• Trump's South Asia policy : It spoke of India being an integral part of it, but India is not a part of the present talks. As on date, only Russia, China and the EU are being considered.
• Ground reality : Initially, the hope was to get the Taliban into the mainstream political process by April 2019 Presidential elections. But Taliban are continuing their terror attacks even now. The election is postponed to Sept. 2019. If Ghani leaves, an interim government will be installed. That could mean chaos and civil war. (It happened in 1990s when US pulled out, cut India out, and Taliban rose to power helped by Pakistan).
• What are India's options? Engaging with the Taliban – we have resisted so far, but for how long? If we do it, our longstanding principle too would be diluted (not engaging with non-state actors engaged in terror) 
• 2019 is not 1989 : Despite the Afghan security forces having suffered massive casualties, the Taliban too will not be able to really overrun and hold Kabul or other big cities. And US may not really give up all its bases presently held. And young Afghans are far more educated and aware today than earlier - so the Taliban may not be able to win hearts and minds by brutality. And Taliban may not directly go against India as Afghans have a very good image of India. 
• Work with the candidates : India can keep talking to all Presidential election candidates, to support a "Grand Jirga“ to get a vision of post-reconliciation Afghanistan. And we must also talk to all Afghans currently in India. Finally, some day, both Indian and Pakistani officials will have to sit and discuss about Afghanistan.
• Our long involvement : The present situation is adverse, but for the sake of the long term, we need to keep talking. A lack of ambition would be very bad.
• Summary : In the face of the world engaging with Taliban at the cost of the elected Afghan govt., India cannot let despondency dictate its Afghanistan policy but must step up efforts to be a part of the game.

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