The last battle (Syrian civil war and Idlib offensive)

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The last battle (Syrian civil war and Idlib offensive)

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  • Idlib is the last bastion of rebels in Syria: The government of Syria (alongwith allies) has brought a large number of troops around the northwestern Idlib province. Syrian troops and Iran-trained militias are on the ground, and Russian have started military movements in the Mediterranean.
  • From the brink to the lap of victory: Bashar al-Assad’s regime almost collpased in 2015, but has fought back and is now eyeing Idlib, and Kurdish-held eastern region.   CONCEPT
  • The difference: While Idlib is ripe for armed conflict, the Kurds want a political solution for autonomy, and not an armed hostility. So Idlib may be the last fight.
  • Who runs Idlib now? The erstwhile Syrian arm of al-Qaeda – Tahrir al-Sham. Total population is more than 30 lakh, including more than 10 lac displaced people from elsewhere.
  • Trump’s warning: President Trump has warned Syria (and Iran + Russia) against starting a massive humanitarian crisis here.
  • Idlib’s complications : 
    1. Turkey is deeply involved here (unlike earlier battles of Aleppo or Eastern Ghouta). It is totally against any attack as refugees will stream into Turkey then 
    2. The boss of Tahrir has warned all rebels not to surrender without a fight 
    3. Russians would want to help Assad with their air power and diplomatic heft, but a fight for Idlib  may turn Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan against Russia
  • Suggestion from the UN: Government troops should allow civilians to leave first. If Russia and Turkey get involved, it would be a good move.
  • Final political win: Russia must help Syria get a final political win, not just a military one, if it wants the full rehabilitation of the Syrian regime.CONCEPT
  • Summary : The Syrian civil war has entered the final phase with the tentative offensive on rebel-held Idlib province, but a political win here can help rehabilitate the Syrian regime more fully.
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    PT's IAS Academy: The last battle (Syrian civil war and Idlib offensive)
    The last battle (Syrian civil war and Idlib offensive)
    Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!
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