India's demography - Old before rich, or Rich before old

An analysis of how Indian demography may or may not ensure prosperity in the future.

India's demography - Old before rich, or Rich before old

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• The story: For any country blessed with a young population, but not rich, the key question always is: will the country become rich (as per international standards) while a majority of its population would still be young, or not. A large youth bulge by itself is never a guarantee of getting rich eventually.
• What about China: Experts debate if China will grow old before it gets rich. India is facing the same question now. But there is a big difference: India has far fewer resources at its disposal. What's clear though is that by 2050, India will have 1.6 billion people, and then the population will finally start to decline rapidly. By 2100, it will perhaps be 90-95 crores or so. That may still be more than what China will have then.
• NFHS 5 survey meaning: The latest round of India’s massive National Family Health Survey shows that fertility rates have collapsed in India, meaning an average Indian woman is now likely to have only two children (most even just one). So that’s below the “replacement rate” of 2.1, at which the population would exactly replace itself over generations. Anything less means it shrinks from the birth side.

1. This was inconceivable in the 80s and 90s, but has happened
2. As modern healthcare had become increasingly available after independence in 1947, population growth exploded — rising from 1.26% annually in the 1940s to 2% in the 1960s
3. The India of 1960s, 70s and 80s was one where the inverted red triangle of the government’s family planning campaign was plastered everywhere
4. What worked finally was increasing prosperity, decreases in infant mortality and — female education and empowerment

• One child policy: Draconian though China’s one-child policy always was, those born under it received unprecedented attention from their families: Average education levels rose sharply, as did the quality of their nutrition. In India, by contrast, the NFHS shows that not only is child malnutrition high, it isn’t improving fast enough. In the five years after 2015-16, acute undernourishment worsened for children in most parts of India.
• Poor education, weak jobs generation: India is facing two problems at the same time. On one hand, India’s education system is failing to create skilled manpower. The unemployment rate for college graduates is 19.3%, almost three times higher than the national average. Employers say that less than half the college graduates entering the workforce have the cutting-edge skills they need or the ability to pick them up in the workplace. On the other hand, too few of these young people are trying to get into the workplace at all. 

1. Two-thirds of working-age Chinese are currently either employed or looking for a job, according to the International Labor Organization; at the beginning of the country’s high-growth spurt in the early 2000s, this labour force participation rate hit 80%. (The global average is close to 60%.) 
2. But in India, CMIE estimates show the LPR stands at a mere 43% (and the pandemic having “lowered the LPR structurally” to 40%). 
3. One key reason: Just one in five Indian women work, which is largely due to social pressure.
4. So an India in which less than half of the working-age population is even looking for a job is not one that will be able to escape poverty before it grows old.

• Youth will decide: More than any previous generation, it is today’s Indian youth who will determine whether India becomes a middle-class, comfortable country by the middle of the century. But they are not being fed properly or educated well, and too many are being forced to opt out of the workforce. China may yet be able to thrive despite its shrinking population. India is far less likely to do so unless it can overhaul its education system and change the norms that prevent women from working.
• Summary: India has to urgently work on generating far more jobs, for far more number of its citizens, especially the women. Prosperity is not a given.
• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the nature of demographic change awaiting India, in coming decades. (2) "It is important for India to ensure it grows rich before it grows old". Explain technically.

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