A basis for Opposition unity (Indian general elections 2019)

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A basis for Opposition unity (Indian general elections 2019)

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• Who wants to be the PM? As the Congress Party projected its President Rahul Gandhi as a PM candidate for 2019, one of its allies the RJD of Bihar differed, saying it will be decided later, collectively. The Congress clarified it isn’t averse to anyone else becoming the PM candidate provided he’s not backed by the Sangh Parivar.
• Opposition Unity: It’s the optimists versus the sceptics. 

1. Optimists feel that since the existence of opposition is at stake, due to the real possibility of India turning into a Hindu Rashtra and democracy getting extinguished, unity has to happen.
2. Sceptics find the political contradictions a recipe for disaster! Since Congress hasn’t been able to offer any meaningful counter-narrative to BJP’s story, it won’t work.

• The Congress effort: They are attacking Modi’s weaknesses and failures, and hoping for anti-incumbency to do the rest.  [Demonetisation, Rafale deal, GST rollout problems]
• Only anti-BJPism is a bad idea: The only way to defeat the BJP is to genuinely create a platform for those groups that the BJP just cannot represent properly due to its ideology. These are the inverse of BJP’s core base – the Hindi belt’s savarnas (forward castes) and urban middle/upper classes.
• Two groups have to come together: So either the Opposition falls into the blind alley of “soft Hindutva” or it gets the two big groups together – (a) the non-savarnas (Dalit-Bahujan-Adivasis) + (b) Regionalist parties.
• Why no flashes so far despite savarna domination? Till date, Indian national politics was dominated by the savarnas (including in the Left!), but the Constitution would temper (soften) their aggression. That document itself can be destroyed in the coming years!
• The Constitution’s magic: It was two-faceted – 

1. Federalism, and 
2. Social Justice. The present govt. has not respected either of these.  How? The Telugu Desam Party and PDP of J&K are out of the NDA, and the LJP was about to join the August 09 agitation on SC/ST Act issue. Shiv Sena too has threatened to go it alone. Lesson? The BJP has limits in accommodating the non-savarna and regional interests at national level.

• Congress = BJP: The Congress has suffered from the same problems And it has declined as a result.
• Savarnas all the way: It is the savarnas that have benefited the most from the project of Indian state, and there is not a single non-savarna party (including the BSP) that has a true national footprint.
• Regional parties know what’s in store: The 2014-2018 period saw concentration of power in Delhi, and regional ones know they will see an institutionalisation of it if this goes on.
• Why Rahul Gandhi should withdraw: If he moves away from the PM candidature, 3 benefits will accrue 
1. His position will strengthen (reluctant politician, not for greed, but idealism)
2. Others will join in 
3. The Congress will remain relevant as regional parties will come under its umbrella (like earlier)
• Gujarat model versus Karnataka model: The 2019 elections will be a battle between these. The Karnataka model is where Congress gave up its CM post to an ally that was much weaker.
• Summary : The 2019 elections will become meaningful from ‘unity of opposition’ perspective only if the Congress moves away from PM candidature, and focusses on refining the Karnataka model.

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