Most vulnerable nations and Climate Change

An analysis of what may happen to the most vulnerable countries if warming continues unabated.

Most vulnerable nations and Climate Change

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Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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• The story: The 65 most vulnerable nations will see GDP drop 20 percent on average by 2050 and 64 percent by 2100 if the world heats up 2.9 degrees Celsius. This was as per a report released on 8th Nov, 2021, at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow. Even if global temperature rises are capped at 1.5 degree Celsius, in keeping with the most ambitious Paris Agreement goal, the same countries would take a GDP hit of 13% by 2050 and 33% by the end of the century, the study from "Christian Aid" said.
• How much rise already: To date, Earth's average surface temperature has risen 1.1C compared to late 19th-century levels. The findings from Christian Aid show that more than a third of the world's nations urgently need help to build up resilience if their economies are to withstand the onslaught of heatwaves, drought, floods and storms made more intense and deadly by global warming.

1. The ability of countries in the Global South to sustainably develop is seriously jeopardised. Policy choices made now would be crucial for preventing further damage.
2. Eight of the top 10 most affected countries are in Africa, with two in South America. All 10 face GDP damage of more than 70 percent by 2100 under our current climate policy trajectory, and 40 percent even if global warming is capped at 1.5C.
3. The country facing the worst GDP loss is Sudan, which in September was left reeling from heavy rains and flash floods affecting more than 3,00,000 people. It would see a GDP reduction of 32 percent by 2050, and 84 percent by 2100 compared with if there was no climate change.
4. The countries covered by the report make up two key negotiating blocs at the UN climate talks, which run through Friday: the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).
5. Small island states are especially vulnerable to storm surges made worse by rising seas. The study does not take into account adaptation measures, which could potentially alleviate some of the damage.

• Financing help: To date, rich governments have committed only modest sums to help poor countries adapt to climate impacts. Africa has the done the least to cause climate change yet this report shows it will face the most severe consequences. That is deeply unjust.
• Obama at the COP26, criticizes Russia and China: Speaking at COP26, Barack Obama, America’s former president, accused China and Russia of a “dangerous absence of urgency” in reducing harmful emissions. He criticised his successor, Donald Trump, saying progress on climate change “stalled” on his watch but that under President Joe Biden America was “prepared to take a leadership role”. He ended on an upbeat note but the limited success of the summit’s first week somewhat belies that optimism. With early negotiations complete, the summit’s organisers released an outline of what they hope will be achieved by the end of the conference. This includes rules for an international carbon market, a framework for “loss-and-damage” financing (reparations for the countries already suffering economically from climate change) and a system to check whether countries are living up to their climate goals. All are issues that several successive COP summits have failed to resolve. Any advances should be celebrated, but expect the final document to embody only slow progress.
• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the inherent injustice in the way climate change is happening, and impacting various nations differentially. (2) What will happen to small island states eventually, if global temepratures keep rising? Explain.

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