AUKUS and China in the Indo-Pacific - A deadly match?

The dynamics that AUKUS will bring into play - an analysis

AUKUS and China in the Indo-Pacific - A deadly match?

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• The story: The ruffle over the AUKUS agreement continues to prevail as France has expressed its resentment at the Australian action at the G20 press conference. The US also reached out to France, in a bid to calm ruffled feathers.
• What exactly is it: The AUKUS is a new trilateral security partnership among The United States, United Kingdom, and Australia for enduring freedom and openness in the Indo-Pacific region. Under it, America and Britain proposed to transfer technology to build a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia within 18 months. This is a direct message to China, that its actions in South China Sea won't go unnoticed, or unchecked.
• The ASEAN factor: There is a matter of ASEAN disunity over the emergence of AUKUS. Even though AUKUS is not a defence alliance, issues such as the strategic threats posed by China are a matter of concern for AUKUS. Australia has assured its commitment to ASEAN centrality and its continued support for the South Pacific Nuclear-Free Zone Treaty and the Treaty of Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone.
• The China factor: The rise of China, particularly its rapid militarisation and aggressive behaviour, is undoubtedly the trigger for the emergence of the agreement. China has criticised AUKUS as an “exclusive bloc” that gravely undermines regional peace and security and reflects a Cold War mentality.
• Importance of US UK relationship: The U.S. and the U.K. have enjoyed a special defence partnership for decades and have fought together as allies, together with Australia, in the Second World War. U.S. shared nuclear weapons technology with the U.K. following the merging of the latter’s nuclear weapons programme with the American Manhattan Project as early as in 1943. The first UK test was conducted in 1952 in the Montebello Islands in Australia. The transfer of sensitive submarine technology by America to the UK was an arrangement based on their long-standing Mutual Defence Agreement of 1958. The other areas covered are cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence and quantum technologies, apart from undersea capabilities.
• BBBW: All three nations will also play a major role in US-led programmes such as Build Back Better World, Blue Dot Network and Clean Network to meet the challenge of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
• Status of engagement with China: Australia had subordinated its strategic assessment of China to transactional commercial interests. China’s naval expansion and incursions into the Indo-Pacific has compelled Australia to revisit its defence and security policies. In 2017 and 2019, China’s Dongdiao-class Type 815 auxiliary general intelligence (AGI) vessel tagged the Talisman Sabre exercises (a biennial exercise that is led by either Australia or the US). China also used the same type of vessel to monitor the multilateral Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise in 2018. AUKUS now provides an opportunity to the U.S. to place proxy submarine forces to limit China’s forays, especially in the Pacific Ocean.
• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the multiple dimensions that will be activated once AUKUS comes into being. (2) Trans-Atlantic defence relationships have stood the test of time. Do you agree? Explain.

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