India's 2030 climate goals - An analysis

An analysis of India's climate action targets as enunciated by PM in COP26 at Glasgow

India's 2030 climate goals - An analysis

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Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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• The story: The world is changing, due to 'climate change', and all countries are being called upon to participate in the mission of 'saving the world' by cutting emissions, and other strategies. India has been a positive participant in all such missions, and has enthusiastically participated in COP26, 2021, also.
• India's fresh 2030 climate goals: With India having set itself on a path to the long-term target of becoming a net-zero economy by 2070, PM Modi committed to the world four distinct near-term targets to be achieved by 2030. These were: (1) improving renewable power generation capacity, (2) greening India’s energy use, (3) cutting emissions explicitly, and (4) reducing the economy’s dependence on carbon emitting fossil fuels.
• Track record: So it is time to check how has India performed on these fronts till now and how achievable do these look from this point in time.

1. Mission 2030 Target 1 - Take India’s non-fossil energy capacity to 500 GW - Of the 388 Gw of installed power capacity in India today, nearly 150 GW is from renewable sources, including hydroelectric power. It has taken us seven years to double the capacity from 2014. The previous doubling was achieved in eight years. To achieve 500 Gw by 2030, India needs to add 350 GW in nine years. For that, India needs to double the capacity in less than five years, roughly. The annual trend has been calculated using compounding the growth rate from 2022 to 2030.
2. Mission 2030 Target 2 - Meet 50% of energy from renewables - Today, India produces 24 per cent of the electricity generation from renewable sources. To go from 24 per cent to 50 per cent in nine years is a challenge, as it needs quadrupling of renewable power generation in a decade. This is assuming the generation from fossil fuels is considered steady at 2019 levels. If that increases every year, renewable power generation would need to increase by a higher multiple by 2030, probably five or six times that of today. The improvement till now has been slow - the share of renewables in power generation was 19 per cent in 2010, and 17 per cent in 2000 (share was higher in 1990 due to larger share of hydro power and relatively underdeveloped thermal power stations).
3. Mission 2030 - Target 3 - Reduce carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes - Modi announced a direct cut in carbon emissions in this decade, and promised that India’s total emissions till 2030 would be one billion tonnes lesser than the current projection. The Climate Action Tracker projects India’s annual emissions at 4 billion tonnes of CO2e in 2030. The Ministry of Environment Forests and Climate Change confirmed that the reduction is cumulative over the period to 2030. Reduction of one billion tonnes over nine years would require a reduction of at least 111 million tonnes each year. This would cut India’s annual emissions by 2.5-3 per cent by 2030. Can it be done?
4. Mission 2030 - Target 4 - Reduce carbon intensity by 45% - In its voluntary pledge in 2010, India had envisaged that the emission intensity of its economy would reduce by 25 per cent from the 2005 levels by the year 2020. In its own assessment, India found, and reported that intensity was cut by 24 per cent in the year 2016 itself, way ahead of the target. In the 2016 Paris agreement, India planned to reduce the intensity by 35 per cent (from 2005 levels) by 2030. In Glasgow 2021, PM Modi made the target further ambitious by announcing that India will cut the carbon intensity by 45 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030.

• Summary: The road ahead is clear - integrate all aspects of government decision-making with climate action pledges. It cannot be an isolated approach in silos, but only an integrated one that will deliver results. The world needs it, as much as Indians too.
• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the major commitments made by India in the COP26 climate summit. Are those targets achievable? Analyse. (2) Which nations in the world now matter the most, for the next 10 years' climate action plans? Explain pointwise.

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