Beyond the Galwan fastness

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 Beyond the Galwan fastness

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• Disruption of energy trade in IOR: The Galwan incident may cast a shadow over trade in the Indian Ocean, where a rising power like China may want to stamp its authority by disrupting trade flows. More than 2/3 of world oil and 50% of coal trade passes through here.
• Where may it happen: While the main shipping routes may remain safe, the edges of the IOR may witness some mischief. Since both nations need fossil fuels continuously, despite growing renewable resources, both need to import constantly. 
• China's strategy: Its aggressive hunt for coal, oil and gas has led to setting up of many ports along the Indian Ocean, with a military presence. It wants Malacca to be safe always. India has responded with its own bases, upto Reunion Island, but is vulnerable in the Bay of Bengal.
• Reserves: India has built onshore oil reserves for the day some shipping line is disrupted. But for coal and gas, it is tough to do. So the option is to monitor the trade routes. If any naval blockade happens, it will be short and swift (like Galwan) but cast a shadow for many decades.
• Troublesome places: China is not worried about the Strait of Hormuz due to its Iran relationship. But PLA has a base in Djibouti, near the Strait of Mandeb ($2 billion cost). China is exerting control on Natuna Sea (near the Lombok Strait, an alternative to Malacca). 
• Ports in the Bay of Bengal region: China's Sri Lankan port at Hambantota may be joined soon by a new port at Kyaukpyu in Myanmar (tip of a SEZ). In the BoB, China has 3 ports now - Payra, Bangladesh and Sittwe, Myanmar.
• BoB's importance: India's 30% coal from east to west plies through it. Trade in coal from Jharkhand and Odisha to other states takes the sea route. The oil-rich KG basin lies there. What if one day China insists that Indian shipping lines may not extend into its extended nautical zone? What it did in South China Sea is a dire warning for the future.
• Longer voyages: If and ever China blocks any route, the costs for shipping will rise sharply. Since China's Galwan message is clear (that it's willing to try unconventional ways), India too must think along those lines in the naval region. 
• Unconventional approach: India can go ahead with naval exercise in the BoB, with the proposed Quad. Tie up with France, with whom India is doing joint maritime surveillance in S. Indian Ocean region. Do whatever but do not ignore the Chinese threat at all.

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