Will Bharat ease India's pain?

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 Will Bharat ease India's pain?

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment


  • Fourth Recession: India is facing its fourth economic contraction in 2020-21, the earlier ones being in 1957-58, 1965-66 and 1979-80. All were due to monsoon failures and impact on agriculture. Agri back then had a large share in GDP (40% in 1979-80).
  • Unique situation today: The 2020-21 recession is being driven by a collapse in activity in services and industrial sector. Agriculture may come to the rescue as it is doing well, due to many reasons.
  • Why agri is doing well: Many reasons - good rains in 2019-20, good rabi harvest, high water storage in all reservoirs, kharif record sowing, normal monsoon for 2020, and low COVID disruption. So rural India will grow strongly this year.
  • Govt. support: The extra Rs.40000 cr support to MGNREGA (over the Rs.61000 cr budgeted) and the PM-KISAN disbursements are direct help to farm sector. So many green shoots are visible now.
    1. Due to 100% jump in Kharif sowing, fertiliser sales are high (up by 98%), making it the only core sector with positive growth in May 2020
    2. FMCG products, 2-wheelers and tractors are seeing vigorous demand
    3. Agri GDP may grow by 2.5%, while others may shrink by 6%
  • How far will it go: Naturally, hopes are high that this rural resurgence will help the broader economy. But since the share of Agri in GDP is low - just 15% - there are limits.
    1. The urban : rural GDP divide is nearly 1 : 1. So resurgent rural will ease the overall economic pain
    2. Urban India creates demand for rural products, and rural folks get jobs in urban areas
    3. Bharat can ease India's economic pain, with some planning
  • Supply-side factors: If quality inputs are not available in time, rural India will suffer. So proper seeds, fertilisers, pesticides and credit needs to be made available. Banks must lend to farm sector.
  • Problem of plenty: Bumper crop production can be a big problem due to price collapse. 
  • Govt. runs the public procurement programme with MSP system (Minimum Support Prices), but not all farmers are a part of it
    1. Govt.-procured stock eventually enters markets, and depresses prices further, hurting those farmers who couldn't sell at MSP
    2. Expansion of procurement to more crops (bajra, urad, tur, jowar and ragi) is needed and policy to not distort market-prices too
    3. Farmers must be encouraged to go for crop diversification
  • Running govt. schemes: The MGNREGA will help absorb returned migrant labourers in rural areas, while a new push to PM Awas Yojana (PMAY) will help build demand for cement and steel, and consumer items.
  • More credit: Pushing rural credit will push rural consumption. Since urban consumption has collapsed, rural must be boosted. And the virus must be contained in urban centres, because if rural folks going back to their homes during festival seasons carry it back, rural India will be affected badly.
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                                                                          PT's IAS Academy: Will Bharat ease India's pain?
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