Trumpism's forward march, or backward?

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 Trumpism's forward march, or backward?


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  1. Trumps never die: While Trump was pushed out of office, history tells that populist movements have a knack for sticking around long after their leaders leave office. Since leaving office, Donald Trump has been remarkably acquitted in a second impeachment trial, and has reportedly considered launching a new political party, investing in a social-media app, and, perhaps more predictably, making another run for the White House in 2024. 
  2. Don't take him lightly: If populist movements have proved anything, it’s their remarkable staying power, even after their leaders have been removed from power, democratically or otherwise. From Berlusconism in Italy to Perónism in Argentina and Fujimorismo in Peru, personality-driven movements rarely fade once their leaders have left office. In the face of victimization, real or imagined, they often thrive. What, then, of Trumpism? 
  3. Silvio Berlusconi story: Of the world’s most notable populist leaders, perhaps none has garnered more comparisons to Trump than the former Italian prime minister. Berlusconi was Trump before Trump: a billionaire businessman and television personality who rose to power by railing against the political establishment and pledging to represent the interests of ordinary people. Though his career of more than two decades has been dogged by scandals, investigations, and trials—evidence, Berlusconi claimed in 2009, that he is “the most persecuted” person in history—he has nonetheless remained a political force since his (most recent) resignation from the premiership in 2011, both within his center-right Forza Italia party, of which he remains leader, as well as in national politics more broadly. A difference between Trump and Berlusconi is that the latter has lost elections without incident. 
  4. Juan Perón: Perónism, the populist movement, dates back to the rise of former Argentine President Juan Perón in the 1940s. It continues to be the preeminent political force there, more than four decades after its namesake’s death. This has to do largely with how Perón came to power and, crucially, how he lost it. Like most populist figures, Perón cast himself as an advocate of ordinary citizens, and, in many ways, he was: In addition to advancing workers’ rights, he oversaw the enfranchisement of women in Argentina. But, like other populists, Perón became more and more authoritarian over the course of his rule, jailing his political opponents, vilifying the media, and restricting constitutional rights. By 1955, after nearly a decade in power, Perón was deposed in a coup and sent into exile in Spain; his party was banned. But his supporters continued to be extremely loyal to him.
  5. Alberto Fujimori: Another populist movement that has endured long after its namesake is Fujimorismo. Named after Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori, whose decade of authoritarian rule ended in a corruption scandal in 2001, it remains a dominant force in Peruvian politics. Unlike Perónism, however, Fujimorismo has largely remained within the family: Fujimori’s children, Keiko and Kenji, lead rival factions of the movement, though neither has managed to succeed their father in the presidency. (Fujimori himself, who was convicted of human-rights abuses in 2009, remains in prison.) With at least some of Trump’s children and extended family eyeing political careers of their own, it’s possible that Trumpism could end up resembling Fujimorismo more than Perónism. In some ways, it already does: All three of his eldest children have held roles in the eponymous family business. 
  6. Trump's model: Whatever model Trumpism ultimately follows—whether it’s Berlusconism, Perónism, Fujimorismo, a combination of the three, or none at all—it’s widely accepted that the movement will continue to exist in some form. It is quite likely that a fundamental conflict between Trumpism and anti-Trumpism is going to shape American politics for a long time to come as well.
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Trumpism's forward march, or backward?
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