Comparing QUAD and AUKUS - Geopolitics' new wordgames

An interesting analysis of what AUKUS and QUAD mean for India, in geopolitical terms

 Comparing QUAD and AUKUS - Geopolitics' new wordgames

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Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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• The story: Aukus, a new 2021 trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, isn’t bad news for India but it means the US will be minding its business in the Atlantic rather than looking to the Indo-Pacific. The Quad, on the other hand, involves India deeply.
• Aukus geography: It is pivoted more towards the Atlantic than the Indo-Pacific.

1. The first priority for this alliance of USA, UK and Australia is to secure the first nuclear-propelled submarines for Australia to fend against the massive Chinese navy.
2. But even with such a sub, Australia, India and Japan know “they must share the region with China — and have no desire to seek a confrontation or pursue the impossible goal of containing a rising superpower”.
3. The Indo-Pacific is thus going to remain a contested region for the next decade or more.

• What exactly is the Aukus: It is the first decisive evidence that the US, under its "America First" policy, is concerned with developments nearer home. Why so? Because while China with its vast navy can knock on the Pacific door of the US, it will be sad if China also knocks on the Atlantic door. How is that even possible? Because the Arctic Sea is becoming navigable as the ice disappears!

1. Along with Russia, China has already made plans to use this route, much to the chagrin of environmental groups.
2. There is no navy to block this combined armada from arriving in the North Atlantic unless the UK gets into the act with the support of the US. The sea lanes of the Indian Ocean are not very vital to both the US and the UK as the fossil fuel era ends and dependence on supply lines from West Asia gets over.

• Alternative economic rationale for Aukus: For members of NATO, the organisation was mandated to carry out economic analysis to assess the security and defence implications of current and potential economic developments. This was under Articles 2 and 3 of the North Atlantic Treaty. While Aukus is also a military treaty alliance, those elements of the pact are not yet public.

1. Aukus brings in its fold two of the three global financial centres: New York and London, leaving only Tokyo out. This is a huge economic heft. Nations now often do not need to wage war with gun­powder but more often with financial power.
2. The US has shows this with its financial sanctions on Iran, Russia and even China to some extent. It is not yet given, but the coming closer of the US and UK can tie their financial centres even more closely against joint enemies, through legislations like the Foreign Account Tax Com­pli­ance Act (FATCA).
3. It requires that foreign financial institutions and often non-financial foreign entities need to report on the foreign assets held by their US account holders or be subject to withholding on withholdable payments.

• How they differ: There are clear differences.

1. The Quad is a dialogue and not a treaty. It brings on the same table US, India, Japan and Australia to counter China’s ascendancy as a superpower.
2. The primary focus of the Quad nations is to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific. The theme of the declaration is to counter China’s geographical claim on territories of several littoral countries of the region.
3. Quad is not evolving as an Asian NATO, but becoming more broad-based. It now includes a climate working group, a vaccine group and a critical and emerging technology group, among others. Both Japan and India have responded to concerns from their neighbours that the Quad should not be a defence pact.

• India and Aukus: The formation of Aukus is a positive, as it took away the pressure on India to sign a security alliance with the US. India can be seen to be close to the Western nations, yet will have the freedom to pursue its own course. India wants to encourage investments from as many nations as possible, like those from West Asia, on its own terms. The membership of Aukus does not confer any economic advantage on India at this stage. The three main drivers of the Aukus (US, UK and Aus­tra­lia) are all extremely keen to sign a Free Trade Agreement with India but for different reasons. This should suit India fine.
• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) What are the strategic imperatives for India, in the evolving geopolitics of Indo-Pacific? Explain. (2) Is the AUKUS a net positive, or a net negative, for India? Elaborate.

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