Carbon emissions are now back to "normal" - New report

The new data on GHG emissions rings a warning bell, once again, before the COP26

 Carbon emissions are now back to "normal" - New report

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• The story: A report by many international scientific agencies has informed that fossil fuel emissions from coal, gas cement etc are back to 2019 levels or even higher in 2021. There was some jubilation in 2020 about the pandemic snuffing out some CO2 emissions, but that's now gone.
• Details: Fossil CO2 emissions from coal, oil, gas and cement – peaked at 36.64 GtCO2 in 2019, followed by a significant drop of 1.98 GtCO2 (5.6%) in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

1. Global emissions in the power and industry sectors were already at the same level or higher in January-July 2021 than in the same period in 2019, before the pandemic, as per the "United in Science" report
2. "United in Science" is coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), with input from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the World Health Organization (WHO), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Global Carbon Project (GCP) etc. The full report will be released later today.
3. While emissions from road transport remained about 5% lower. Apart from aviation and sea transport, global emissions were at about the same levels as in 2019, averaged across those 7 months.

• Major GHG: Concentrations of all major greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (NO) continued to increase in 2020 and the first half of 2021, the report said, adding that overall emissions reductions in 2020 likely reduced the annual increase of the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases “but this effect was too small to be distinguished m natural variability.”

1. United in Science has reiterated that there is high chance that global average temperature in one of the next five years will be at least 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) higher than pre-industrial levels. Annual global mean near-surface temperature is likely to be within the range 0.9°C to 1.8°C in the next five years. There is a 40% chance that average global temperature in one of the next five years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels but it is very unlikely (~10%) that the 5-year mean temperature for 2021–2025 will be 1.5°C warmer.
2. The report has warned that coastal cities around the world; low lying coastal areas, small islands and deltas will need adaptation strategies urgently. Global mean sea levels rose 20 cm from 1900 to 2018 and at an accelerated rate of 3.7+0.5 mm/yr from 2006 to 2018. Even if emissions are reduced to limit warming to well below 2°C, global mean sea level would likely rise by 0.3–0.6 m by 2100. Adaptation to this residual rise will be essential – adaptation strategies are needed where they do not exist – especially in low-lying coasts, small islands, deltas and coastal cities.

• Build back better: Throughout the pandemic it was said that "we must build back better" to set humanity on a more sustainable path and to avoid the worst impacts of climate change on society and economies. This report warns that so far in 2021 humanity is not going in the right direction.

1. The past five-year period is among the hottest on record. Mankind continue to destroy the things on which we depend for life on Earth.
2. Ice caps and glaciers continue to melt, sea-level rise is accelerating, the ocean is dying and biodiversity is collapsing.
3. This year, fossil fuel emissions have bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise to new record highs.
4. The Earth now has five times the number of recorded weather disasters than it had in 1970 and they are seven times more costly. Even the most developed countries have become vulnerable.

• COP26 a turning point: The UN climate negotiations (COP26) this November must mark a turning point. By then all countries must commit to achieve net zero emissions by the middle of this century and to present clear, credible long-term strategies to get there.

1. Guterres, and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson called an informal, closed-door roundtable with a small but representative group of heads of state and government, on the sidelines of the General Assembly, on September 20.
2. The Informal Climate Leaders Roundtable on Climate Action follows the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and comes less than six weeks before the COP26 Climate Change Conference in Glasgow.

• Warning: IPCC’s report last month had flagged that the world may have lost the opportunity to keep global warming under 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels. The 1.5°C global warming threshold is likely to be breached in the next 10 to 20 years by 2040 in all emission scenarios including the one where carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decline rapidly to net zero around 2050. The the focus of the meeting will be a road map for the 1.5°C goal; climate mitigation and adaptation finance particularly the commitment to mobilise $100 billion per year by 2020 by developed countries.
• Summary: Clearly, time is running out for meaningful action on climate change.
• EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the key challenge the world faces in terms of cutting greenhouse gas emissions. (2) What are the ways the world may one day, save itself from total disaster on the climate front? Explain.

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READ WMO's UNITED IN SCIENCE REPORT

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