India can opt for climate mitigation, while maintaining its economic ambitions intact.
SHARE:
Climate action can help Indian economy grow rapidly
- The story: It is clear by now that global emissions will continue to rise if no significant action is taken to mitigate climate change. Such inaction will adversely impact economic growth of all countries.
- Export decarbonisation: There is hope that India can gain trillions in economic value over the next 50 years by limiting rising global temperatures and realising its potential to ‘export decarbonisation’. If India doesn’t act now to mitigate the effects of climate change, it could lose trillions in economic potential, over the next few decades.
- A new report: A report by Deloitte titled "India’s turning point: How climate action can drive our economic future" explains that if no action is taken on climate change, the average global temperatures could rise by 3°C or more by the end of this century. This will make it harder for people to live and work, as sea levels rise, crop yields fall, infrastructure is damaged, and other challenges emerge, threatening the progress and prosperity that India has enjoyed.
- Experts reckon India has about a decade to make decisions that can help change the trajectory of climate change.
- Although no one is immune to the impact of climate change, India has a chance to show climate action is not just about costs but also sustainable economic growth.
- The aspiration of being a $5 trillion economy may be more than just foreign and domestic investments; it can also align ambitions with climate choices.
- Which will be impacted the most: Over the next 50 years, the top five most impacted industries in terms of economic activity will be — services (government and private), manufacturing, retail and tourism, construction, and transport. These are currently account for more than 80% of India’s GDP. These five alone could experience an annual loss in the value-added to GDP of more than $1.5 trillion per year by 2070.
- If governments, businesses, and communities act rapidly in the next decade to address climate change, average global temperature rises can be limited to around 1.5°C by 2050, a scenario that will minimise the impact
- At the same time, India can achieve significant economic growth by supplying the products, services, and financing that the world would need to limit a rise in temperature.
- India is home to many enterprises that are already world-leading producers of the advanced solutions countries would need to address climate change. (d) These include green hydrogen and negative-emission solutions, both natural and technological.
- Accelerated decarbonisation: It could bring significant benefits to India and the world. India could use the transition to a low-emission footing to restructure its economy towards growth in advanced industrial sectors, leveraging lower-cost clean energy export markets, as the region experiences a rapid increase in energy demand over the coming years.
- As a developing nation, India’s transformation to a low-emission footing will be more challenging than others. Transitioning to emerging, low-emission technologies won't be easy. The structural adjustment costs associated with reducing India’s emissions profile are significant, but the cost of inaction will be greater.
- Rapid decarbonisation through broad changes in its energy mix and industrial base will significantly transition India away from fossil fuel sources, falling to just 5% by 2070.
- The report sets out four key stages for India’s climate transition. Economic benefits would be observed from the first year that positive climate policy decisions start delivering rapid investment and technology development. In 2070 alone, this would equate to a GDP growth of 8.5%.
- A cleaner world: The next few years set the stage for rapid decarbonization. The decisions by government, regulators, business, industry and consumers would reinforce initial progress and create the market conditions to deliver decarbonization at pace and scale. During the first phase, India would need to forgo some short-term economic development in favour of significant investment in sustainable technologies.
- Second phase - 2030 to 2040 - Coordinated change - The hardest shifts in industrial policy, energy systems, and consumer behaviour would occur in this period.
- Third phase - 2040 to 2055 - Turning point - The decarbonization of high-emitting industries should be nearly complete by this period. The cost of new low-emission technologies would be decreasing and net economic gains would be shared more widely.
- Fourth phase 2055 onwards - A low-emission future - By the end of the century, India’s economy would be near net-zero emissions and the world’s economic systems of production would be keeping global average warming to around 1.5°C. Economic structures would be radically transformed, standing atop a series of interconnected, low-emission systems spanning energy, mobility, manufacturing, and food and land use.
- Vulnerable: India’s climate, as well as its large population and economic dependence on agriculture, mean it is particularly exposed to the effects of unchecked climate change. As average global temperatures continue to rise, extreme weather events—such as flooding and heatwaves—would become increasingly common and devastating throughout the region. Rising sea levels would impact a large number of communities in coastal areas, particularly through damage to capital infrastructure. With about a quarter of India’s rural population currently living in poverty, their capacity to swiftly recover would be very limited.
- Agriculture: It remains a key sector in the Indian economy, accounting for about 16% of GDP in 2019. However, climate change is expected to reduce the reliability of seasonal output, impacting revenue. One study found that rising temperatures reduced some Indian crop yields by about 5.3% between 1981 and 2009.15 India clearly has a strong incentive to act swiftly and limit the extent of any future impacts of climate change.
- 9. EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Explain the major phases that policymakers need to take India through, over next 40 years, to make it a climate action leader in the world. (2) Explain the three major challenges India will face in the future, due to climate change. What will agriculture face? Explain.
#GlobalWarming #ClimateChange #Environment #NetZero
COMMENTS