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India - demographics - Part 2
6.0 POPULATION GROWTH RATES
It is significant that the percentage decadal growth during 2001-2011 has registered the sharpest decline since independence.
It declined from 23. 87 percent for 1981-1991 to 21.54 percent for the period 1991-2001, a decrease of 2.33 percentage point. For 2001-2011, this decadal growth has become 17.64 percent, a further decrease of 3.90 percentage points.
Similarly, the average exponential growth rate for 2001-2011 has declined to 1.64 percent per annum from 1.97 percent per annum during 1991-2001. The average annual exponential growth rate during 1981-1991 was 2.16.
Uttar Pradesh continues to be the most populous State in the country with almost 200 million people living here, which is more than the population of Brazil, the fifth most populous country in the world. The combined population of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra (the second most populous State), at 312 million, is substantially greater than the population of USA, the third most populous country of the world. Twenty States and Union Territories now have a population of over ten million. On the other extreme, there are five States and Union Territories in the country that are yet to reach the one million mark.
While Uttar Pradesh (199.6 million), Maharashtra (112.4 million), Bihar (103.8 million), West Bengal (91.3 million) and Andhra Pradesh (84.7 million) have all held on to the top five slots in terms of their ranking in 2011 as compared to 2001, Madhya Pradesh (72.6 million), which has moved on to take the sixth position from its seventh position, pushing Tamil Nadu (72.1 million) now to the seventh spot. A little more than six of every ten Indians live in one of these seven States
7.0 POPULATION GROWTH: ALL STATES AND UNION TERRITORIES
Almost ten of the twenty most populous states, having a population of ten million or more, have added lesser persons in the decade 2001-2011 compared to the previous one. Had these ten States added the same number of persons during 2001-2011 as they did in the previous decade, everything else remaining the same, India would have added another 9.7 million more persons during this decade. The phenomenon of low growth have started to spread beyond the boundaries of the Southern States during 2001-11, where in addition to Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka in the South, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab in the North, West Bengal and Orissa in the East, and Maharashtra in the West have registered a growth rate between eleven to sixteen percent in 2001-2011 over the previous decade. The Provisional Population Totals of Census 2001 predicted this: "It is also obvious that in the contiguous four major South Indian States fertility decline appears to have well established, stretching to neighbouring Maharashtra on the west and Orissa and West Bengal in the east, while it is scattered in other regions."
A decline of more than five percentage points in decadal growth rate from the previous census decade was recorded for fifteen States and Union Territories, namely, for the States Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Maharashtra and Goa, and also for the Union Territories of Delhi, Chandigarh, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands. These fifteen States and Union Territories together account for more than thirty nine per cent of the country's population. Among the larger States and Union Territories, Delhi has registered the sharpest drop of twenty six percentage points during the said period followed by Haryana (8.53), Rajasthan (6.97) and Maharashtra (6.74).
The remaining seventeen States and Union Territories have shown a decline of one to five percentage points in their growth rates during 2001-2011 as compared to 1991-2001. These seventeen States and Union Territories together account for more than fifty two per cent of total population. Thus more than nine out of every ten Indians live in States and Union Territories which have shown a declining trend in population growth.
It brings out the major shift in distribution of States and Union Territories by the ranges of growth rates between 1991-2001 and 2001-2011. The number of States and Union Territories with percentage decadal growth below eighteen percent, the current National average, has increased substantially from ten in 1991-2001 to seventeen in the decade 2001-2011, whereas the number of States/Union Territories with percentage decadal growth more than eighteen percent has reduced significantly from twenty five to eighteen. The sum total of the population of the States and Union Territories that registered less than the national growth rate has shown an impressive increase from about thirty four percent in 2001 to forty seven percent in 2011. Twelve States and Union Territories, with a combined population amounting to a little more than twenty four percent of India has grown by less than fifteen percent during 2001-2011. The number of such States and Union Territories was only three during 1991-2001.
8.0 conclusion
- The world’s population continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than at any time since 1950, owing to reduced levels of fertility. From an estimated 7.7 billion people worldwide in 2019, the medium-variant projection1 indicates that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and 10.9 billion in 2100.
- With a projected addition of over one billion people, countries of sub-Saharan Africa could account for more than half of the growth of the world’s population between 2019 and 2050, and the region’s population is projected to continue growing through the end of the century. Others will shrink.
- Two-thirds of the projected growth of the global population through 2050 will be driven by current age structures and would occur even if childbearing in high-fertility countries today were to fall immediately to around two births per woman over a lifetime.
- More than half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just nine countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the United Republic of Tanzania, and the United States of America.
- The populations of 55 countries or areas are projected to decrease by one per cent or more between 2019 and 2050 because of sustained low levels of fertility, and, in some places, high rates of emigration.
- In 2018, for the first time in history, persons aged 65 years or over worldwide outnumbered children under age five. Projections indicate that by 2050 there will be more than twice as many persons above 65 as children under five.
- Life expectancy at birth for the world’s population reached 72.6 years in 2019, an improvement of more than 8 years since 1990.
Here are some useful indicators for India, and the world.
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