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India - Climate
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Climate refers to the sum total of weather conditions and variations over a large area for a long period of time (more than thirty years). Weather refers to the state of the atmosphere over an area at any point of time. The elements of weather and climate are the same, i.e. temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind, humidity and precipitation.
You may have observed that the weather conditions fluctuate very often even within a day. But there is some common pattern over a few weeks or months, i.e. days are cool or hot, windy or calm, cloudy or bright, and wet or dry. On the basis of the generalized monthly atmospheric conditions, the year is divided into seasons such as winter, summer or rainy seasons. During the summer season the desert area of Rajasthan witnesses 50º temperature whereas Pahalgam sector of Jammu and Kashmir has 20ºC temperature.
During winter nights, the Dras sector of Jammu and Kashmir witnesses -45ºC temperature whereas a city like Thiruvananthpuram has a reading of 20ºC. Rainfall also varies in terms of quantity and distribution. In the regions of Himalaya rainfall is in the form of snowy balls, whereas in the rest of part of India it is general rain. Again, annual rainfall varies from 1200 mm at some places in Meghalaya to 102 mm in Ladakh and West Rajasthan.
In the coastal area the variation of rainfall is less, whereas in the inner parts of country the seasonal variation is more. Accordingly, Indians show their unity in diversity in terms of food, clothing, housing and culture!
2.0 Factors determining the climate of India
India's climate is controlled by a number of factors which can be broadly divided into two groups
- factors related to location and relief, and
- factors related to air pressure and winds.
2.1 Factors related to location and relief latitude
The Tropic of Cancer: It passes through the central part of India in east-west direction. The northern part of India lies in sub-tropical and temperate zone and the part lying south of the Tropic of Cancer falls in the tropical zone. The tropical zone being nearer to the equator, experiences high temperatures throughout the year with small daily and annual range. The area north of the Tropic of Cancer being away from the equator, experiences extreme climate with high daily and annual range of temperature.
The Himalayan Mountains: The towering mountain chain provides an invincible shield to protect the subcontinent from the cold northern winds. The Himalayas also trap the monsoon winds, forcing them to shed their moisture within the subcontinent.
Distribution of Land and Water: India is flanked by the India Ocean on three sides in the south and girdled by a high and continuous mountain wall in the north. As compared to the landmass, water heats up or cools down slowly. This differential heating of land and sea creates different air pressure zones in different seasons in and around the Indian subcontinent. Difference in air pressure causes reversal in the direction of monsoon winds.
Distance from the Sea: With a long coastline, large coastal areas have an equable climate. Areas in the interior of India are far away from the moderating influence of the sea. Such areas have extremes of climate. That is why, the people of Mumbai and the Konkan coast have hardly any idea of extremes of temperature and the seasonal rhythm of weather. On the other hand, the seasonal contrasts in weather at places in the interior of the country such as Delhi, Kanpur and Amritsar affect entire sphere of life.
Altitude: Temperature decreases with increasing altitudes. Due to thin air, places in the mountains are cooler than places on the plains. For example, Agra and Darjeeling are located on the same latitude, but temperature of January in Agra is 16ºC whereas it is only 4ºC in Darjeeling.
Relief: The physiography or relief of India also affects the temperature, air pressure, direction and speed of wind and the amount and distribution of rainfall. The windward sides of Western Ghats and Assam receive high rainfall during June- September whereas the southern plateau remains dry to its leeward situation along the Western Ghats.
2.2 Factors related to air pressure and wind
To understand the differences in local climates of India, we need to understand the mechanism of the following three factors:
- Distribution of air pressure and winds on the surface of the earth
- Upper air circulation caused by factors controlling global weather and the inflow of different air masses and jet streams
- Inflow of western cyclones generally known as disturbances during the winter season and tropical depressions during the south-west monsoon period into India, creating weather conditions favourable to rainfall.
The mechanism of these three factors can be understood with reference to winter and summer seasons of the year separately.
2.3 Mechanism of weather in the winter season
Surface pressure and winds: In winter months, the weather conditions over India are generally influenced by the distribution of pressure in Central and Western Asia. A high pressure centre in the region lying to the north of the Himalayas during winter. This centre of high pressure gives rise to the flow of air at the low level from the north towards the Indian subcontinent, south of the mountain range. The surface winds blowing out of the high pressure centre over Central Asia reach India in the form of a dry continental air mass. These continental winds come in contact with trade winds over northwestern India. The position of this contact zone is not, however, stable. Occasionally, it may shift its position as far east as the middle Ganga valley with the result that whole of northwestern and northern India up to the middle Ganga valley comes under the influence of dry northwestern winds.
Jet Stream and Upper Air Circulation: The pattern of air circulation discussed above is witnessed only at the lower level of the atmosphere near the surface of the earth. Higher up in the lower troposphere, about three km above the surface of the earth, a different pattern of air circulation is observed. The variations in the atmospheric pressure closer to the surface of the earth have no role to play in the making of upper air circulation. All of Western and Central Asia remains under the influence of westerly winds along the altitude of 9-13 km from west to east.
These winds blow across the Asian continent at latitudes north of the Himalayas roughly parallel to the Tibetan highlands. These are known as jet streams. Tibetan highlands act as a barrier in the path of these jet streams. As a result, jet streams get bifurcated. On of its branches blows to the north of the Tibetan highlands, while the southern branch blows in an eastward direction, south of the Himalayas. It has its mean position at 25ºN in February at 200-300 mb level. It is believed that this southern branch of the jet stream exercise an important influence on the winter weather in India.
Western cyclonic disturbance and tropical cyclones: The western cyclone disturbances which enter the Indian subcontinent from the west and the northwest during the winter months originate over the Mediterranean Sea and are brought into India by the westerly jet stream. An increase in the prevailing night temperature generally indicates an advance in the arrival of these cyclones disturbances.
Tropical cyclones originate over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean. These tropical cyclones have very high wind velocity and heavy rainfall and hit the Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coast. Most of these cyclones are very destructive due to high wind velocity and torrential rain that accompanies it.
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ); The Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a low pressure zone located at the equator where trade winds converge, and so, it is a zone where air tends to ascend. In July, the ITCZ is located around 20ºN latitudes (over the Gangetic plain), sometimes called the monsoon trough. This monsoon trough encourages the development of thermal low over north and northwest India. Due to the shift of ITCZ, the trade winds of the southern hemisphere cross the equator between 40ºE and 60ºE longitudes and start blowing from southwest to northeast due to the Coriolis force. It becomes the southwest monsoon. In winter, the ITCZ moves southward, and so the reversal of winds from northeast to south and southwest, takes place. They are called northeast monsoons.
2.4 Mechanism of weather in the summer season
Surface pressure and winds: As the summer sets in and the sun shifts northwards, the wind circulation over the subcontinent undergoes a complete reversal at both the lower as well as the upper levels. By the middle of July, the low pressure belt nearer the surface (termed as Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)) shifts northwards, roughly parallel to the Himalayas between 20ºN and 25ºN. By this time, the westerly jet stream withdraws from the Indian region. In fact, meteorologists have found an interrelationship between the northward shift of the equatorial trough (ITCZ) and the withdrawal of the westerly jet stream from over the North Indian Plain. It is generally believed that there is a cause and effect relationship between the two. The ITCZ being a zone of low pressure attracts inflow of winds from different directions. The maritime tropical air mass (MT) from the southern hemisphere, after crossing the equator, rushes to the low pressure area in the general southwesterly direction. It is this moist air current which is popularly known as the southwest monsoon.
Jet streams and upper air circulation: The pattern of pressure and winds as mentioned above is formed only at the level of the troposphere. An easterly jet stream flows over the southern part of the Peninsula in June, and has a maximum speed of 90 km per hour. In August, it is confined to 15ºN latitude, and in September up to 22ºN latitudes. The easterlies normally do not extend to the north of 30ºN latitude in the upper atmosphere.
Easterly jet stream and tropical cyclones: The easterly jet stream steers the tropical depressions into India. These depressions play a significant role in the distribution of monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. The tracks of these depressions are the areas of highest rainfall in India. The frequency at which these depressions visit India, their direction and intensity, all go a long way in determining the rainfall pattern during the southwest monsoon period.
3.0 The Nature of Indian Monsoon
Monsoon is a familiar, though a little known climatic phenomenon. Despite the observations spread over centuries, the monsoon continues to puzzle the scientists. Many attempts have been made to discover the exact nature and causation of monsoon, but so far, no single theory has been able to explain the monsoon fully. A real breakthrough came when it was studied at the global rather than at regional level.
Systematic studies of the causes of rainfall in the South Asian region help to understand the causes and salient features of the monsoon, particularly some of its important aspects, such as:
- The onset of the monsoon
- Rain-bearing systems (e.g. tropical cyclones) and the relationship between their frequency and distribution of monsoon rainfall
- Break in the monsoon
3.1 Onset of the Monsoon
Towards the end of the nineteenth century, it was believed that the differential heating of land and sea during the summer months is the mechanism which sets the stage for the monsoon winds of drift towards the subcontinent. During April and May when the sun shines vertically over the Tropic of Cancer, the large landmass in the north of Indian Ocean gets intensely heated. This causes the formation of an intense low pressure in the northwestern part of the subcontinent. Since the pressure in the Indian Ocean in the south of the landmass is high as water gets heated slowly, the low attracts the southeast trades across the Equator. These conditions help in the northward shift in the position of the ITCZ. The southwest monsoon may thus, be seen as a continuation of the southeast trades deflected towards the Indian subcontinent after crossing the Equator. These winds cross the Equator between 40ºE and 60ºE longitudes.
The shift in the position of the ITCZ is also related to the phenomenon of the withdrawal of the westerly jet stream from its position over the north Indian plain, south of the Himalayas. The easterly jet stream sets in along 15ºN latitude only after the western jet stream has withdrawn itself from the region. This easterly jet stream is held responsible for the burst of the monsoon in India.
Entry of Monsoon into India: The southwest monsoon sets in over the Kerala coast by 1st June and moves swiftly to reach Mumbai and Kolkata between 10th and 13th June. By mid-July, southwest monsoon engulfs the entire subcontinent.
3.2 Rain-bearing systems and the distribution of rainfall
There seem to be two rain-bearing systems in India. First originates in the Bay of Bengal causing rainfall over the plains of north India. Second is the Arabian Sea current of the southwest monsoon which brings rain to the west coast of India. Much of the rainfall along the Western Ghats is orographic as the moist air is obstructed and forced to rise along the Ghats. The intensity of rainfall over the west coast of India is, however, related to two factors:
- The offshore meteorological conditions, and
- The position of the equatorial jet stream along the eastern coast of Africa.
The frequency of the tropical depressions originating from the Bay of Bengal varies from year to year. Their paths over India are mainly determined by the position of ITCZ which is generally termed as the monsoon trough. As the axis of the monsoon trough oscillates, there are fluctuations in the track and direction of these depressions, and the intensity and the amount of rainfall vary from year to year. The rain which comes in spells, displays a declining trend from west to east over the west coast, and from the southeast towards the northwest over the North Indian Plain and the northern part of the Peninsula.
3.3 EI-Nino and the Indian Monsoon
EI-Nino is a complex weather system that appears once every three to seven years bringing drought, floods and other weather extremes to different parts of the world. The system involves oceanic and atmospheric phenomena with the appearance of warm currents off the coast of peru in the Eastern Pacific and affects weather in many places including India. EI Nino is merely an extension of the warm equatorial current which gets replaced temporarily by cold Peruvian current or Humbolt current. This current increases the temperature of water on the Peruvian coast by 10ºC. This results in:
- The distortion of equatorial atmospheric circulation
- Irregularities in the evaporation of sea water, and
- Reduction in the amount of planktons which further reduces the number of fish in the sea.
The word EI-Nino means 'Child Christ' because this current appears around Christmas in December. December is a summer month in Peru (Southern Hemisphere).
EI-Nino is used in India for forecasting long range monsoon rainfall. In 1990-91, there was a wild EI-Nino even and the onset of southwest monsoon was delayed over most parts of the country ranging from five to twelve days.
EL-Nino, Southern oscillation and Somalian ocean current also substantially influence the Indian Monsoon. El-Nino is a warm ocean current appearing along the Peru coast, generally in December. Hence it is known as El-Nino (Child Christ). It replaces the cold Peru Ocean Current flowing along the Peru coast in normal years. When the conditions are normal, the Peruvian current is a cold water current. However over the western Pacific, (Indonesia and eastern Australia) the ocean current is warm and deep. El-Nino reverses the condition and develops warm conditions over the eastern Pacific (Peru coast) and cold conditions in the western Pacific (east of Australia and Indonesia). This results in a higher amount of precipitation in the coastal areas of South America whereas the eastern coasts of Australia and Indonesia record drought conditions. Therefore it can be said that the consequence of El Nino in India is a weak monsoon.
The seesaw pattern of meteorological changes that are often observed between the Pacific and the Indian Oceans is known as the Southern Oscillation. This term was coined by Sir Gilbert Walker, the first Director General of the Indian Meteorological Service in 1924. It has been observed that whenever the surface pressure is higher over the Pacific, the pressure over the Indian Ocean tends to be low. As pressures are inversely related to rainfall, this suggests that when low pressure prevails over the Indian Ocean in the winter months (positive Southern Oscillation) the chances are that the coming monsoon rains will be good. In opposition to this, when high pressure prevails over the Indian Ocean in winter season, the coming monsoon will be weak.
The intensity of Southern Oscillation (SOI) is measured by the differences in sea level pressures at Tahiti (18°S and 149°W), a station in the mid-Pacific, and Port Darwin (12°S and 130°E), a representative station in the Indian Ocean (Walker Cell). A low pressure over Peru Current and higher pressure over north Indian Ocean during the winter season would imply a negative value of the Southern Oscillation and a poor or indifferent monsoon. With a high positive Southern Oscillation would indicate a zone of low atmospheric pressure over Australia and Indonesian Archipelago. This results in large convective clouds, heavy rainfall and raining air motion. This air eventually runs eastward, and after traversing the Pacific as a high level westerly wind at 200 millibar (mb), it descends over South America.
Somalian Current: The Somalian current changes its direction of flow after every six months. Normally along the eastern coast of Somalia there is a low pressure belt. In abnormal years the low pressure area in Western Arabian Sea becomes a high pressure area. Such a pressure reversal results into a weaker monsoon in the subcontinent of India. This happens once every 6-7 years.
3.4 Break in the Monsoon
During the south-west monsoon period after having rains for a few days, if rain fails to occur for one or more weeks, it is known as break in the monsoon. These dry spells are quite common during the rainy season. These breaks in the different regions are due to different reasons:
In northern India, rains are likely to fail if the rain-bearing storms are not very frequent along the monsoon trough or the ITCZ over this region.
Over the west coast the dry spells are associated with dayswhen winds blow parallel to the coast.
4.0 The Seasons
The climatic conditions of India can best be described in terms of an annual cycle of seasons. The meteorologists recognize the following four seasons:
- The cold weather season
- The hot weather season
- The southwest monsoon season
- The retreating monsoon season
4.1 Some famous local storms of hot weather season
Mango shower: Towards the end of summer. There are pre-monsoon showers which are a common phenomena in Kerala and coastal areas of Karnataka. Locally, they are known as mango showers since they help in the early ripening of mangoes.
Blossom shower: With this shower, coffee flowers blossom in Kerala and nearby areas.
Norwesters (kalbaisakhi): These are dreaded evening thunderstorms in Bengal and Assam. Their notorious nature can be understood from the local nomenclature of 'Kalbaisakhi', a calamity of the month of Baisakh. These showers are useful for tea, Jute and rice cultivation. In Assam, these storms are known as "Bordoiseela".
Loo: Hot, dry and oppressing winds blowing in the Northern plains from Punjab to Bihar with higher intensity between Delhi and Patna.
4.2 The cold weather season
Temperature: Usually, the cold weather season sets in by mid-November in northern India. December and January are the coldest months in the northern plain. The mean daily temperature remains below 21ºC over most parts of northern India. The night temperature may be quite low, sometimes going below freezing point in Punjab and Rajasthan.
There are three main reasons for the excessive cold in north India during this season:
- States like Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan being far away from the moderating influenced of sea experience continental climate.
- The snowfall in the nearby Himalayan ranges creates cold wave situation; and
- Around February, the cold winds coming from the Caspian Sea and Turkmenistan bring cold wave along with frost and fog over the northwestern parts of India.
The Peninsular region of India, however, does not have any well-defined cold weather season. There is hardly any seasonal change in the distribution pattern of the temperature in coastal areas because of moderating influence of the sea and the proximity to equator. For example, the mean maximum temperature for January at Thiruvanantapuram is as high as 31ºC, and for June, it is 29.5ºC. Temperatures at the hills of Western Ghats remain comparatively low.
Pressure and winds: By the end of December (22nd December), the sun shines vertically over the Tropic of Capricorn in the southern hemisphere. The weather in this season is characterized by feeble high pressure conditions over the northern plain. In south India, the air pressure is slightly lower. The isobars of 1019 mb and 1013 mb pass through northwest India and far south, respectively.
As a result, winds start blowing from northwestern high pressure zone to the low air pressure zone over the Indian Ocean in the south.
Due to low pressure gradient, the light winds with a low velocity of about 3-5 km per hour begin to blow outwards. By and large, the topography of the region influences the wind direction. They are westerly or northwesterly down the Ganga Valley. They become northerly in the Ganga-Brahamputra delta. Free from the influence of topography, they are clearly northeasterly over the Bay of Bengal. During the winters, the weather in India is pleasant. The pleasant weather conditions, however, at intervals, get disturbed by shallow cyclonic depressions originating over the east Mediterranean Sea and travelling eastwards across West Asia, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan before the reach the northwestern parts of India. On their way, the moisture content gets augmented from the Caspian Sea in the north and the Persian Gulf in the south.
4.3 Role of westerly jet stream
Rainfall: Winter monsoons do not cause rainfall as they move from land to the sea. It is because firstly, they have little humidity; and secondly, due to anti cyclonic circulation on land, the possibility of rainfall from them reduces. So, most parts of India do not have rainfall in the winter season. However, there are some exceptions to it:
In northwestern India, some weak temperate cyclones from the Mediterranean sea cause rainfall in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh. Although the amount is meager, it is highly beneficial for rabi crops. The precipitation is in the form of snowfall in the lower Himalayas. It is this snow that sustains the flow of water in the Himalayan Rivers during the summer months. The precipitation goes on decreasing fromwest to east in the plains and fromnorth to south in the mountains. The average winter rainfall in Delhi is around 53 mm. In Punjab and Bihar, rainfall remains between 25 mm and 18 mm respectively.
Central parts of India and northern parts of southern Peninsula also get winter rainfall occasionally.
Arunachal Pradesh and Assam in the northeastern parts of India also have rains between 25 mm and 50 mm during these winter months. During October and November, northeast monsoon while crossing over the Bay of Bengal, pick up moisture and causes torrential rainfall over the Tamil Nadu coast, southern Andhra Pradesh, southeast Karnataka and southeast Kerala.
4.4 The hot weather season
Temperature: With the apparent northward movement of the sun towards the Tropic of Cancer in March, temperatures start rising in north India. April, May and June are the months of summer in north India. In most parts of India, temperatures recorded are between 30º-32ºC. In March, the highest day temperature of about 38ºC occurs in the Deccan Plateau while in April, temperature ranging between 38ºC and 43ºC are found in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. In May, the heat belt moves further north, and in the north-western part of India, temperatures around 48ºC are not uncommon.
The hot weather season in south India is mild and not so intense as found in north India. The Peninsular situation of south India with moderating effect of the oceans keeps the temperatures lower than that prevailing in north India. So, temperatures remain between 26ºC and 32ºC. Due to altitude, the temperatures in the hills of Western Ghats remain below 25ºC. In the coastal regions, the north-south extent of isotherms parallel to the coast confirms that temperature does not decrease from north to south rather it increases from the coast to the interior. The mean daily minimum temperature during the summer months also remains quite high and rarely goes below 26ºC.
Pressure and winds: The summer months are a period of excessive heat and falling air pressure in the northern half of the country. Because of the heating of the subcontinent, the ITCZ moves northwards occupying a position centred at 25ºN in July. Roughly, this elongated low pressure monsoon trough extends over the Thar desert in the north-west to Patna and Chotanagpur plateau in the east-southeast. The location of the ITCZ attracts a surface circulation of the winds which are southwesterly on the west coast as well as along the coast ofWest Bengal and Bangladesh. They are easterly or southeasterly over north Bengal and Bihar. It has been discussed earlier that these currents of southwesterly monsoon are in reality 'displaced' equatorial westerlies. The influx of these winds by mid-June brings about a change in the weather towards the rainy season.
In the heart of the ITCZ in the northwest, the dry and hot winds known as 'Loo', blowin the afternoon, and very often, they continue to well intomidnight. Dust storms in the evening are very common duringMay in Punjab, Haryana, Eastern Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. These temporary storms bring a welcome respite from the oppressing heat since they bring with them light rains and a pleasant cool breeze. Occasionally, The moisture-laden winds are attracted towards the periphery of the trough. A sudden contact between dry and moist air masses gives rise to local storms of great intensity. These local storms are associated with violent winds, torrential rains and even hailstorms.
5.0 THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND THE INDIAN MONSOON
Under the Monsoon expedition (Monex) organized in 1973 four Russian and two Indian ships equipped with modern scientific instruments investigated the phenomenon of Indian monsoons. The data obtained indicated that the Tibetan Plateau plays a crucial role in initiating the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent. Earlier a view had been expressed that the summer-time heating of the Plateau of Tibet was the most important factor in the causation and maintenance of monsoonal circulation.
The Tibetan plateau is 600 km wide in the west and 1000 km in the east. Its length from west to east is about 2000 km. The average height of the plateau is about 4000 m. Thus, it is an enormous block of high ground acting as a formidable barrier. Due to its enormous height it receives 2°C to 3°C more insolation than the neighbouring areas. It is also one of the most important geographical controls on the general atmospheric circulation in the region. The Plateau of Tibet affects the atmosphere in two ways, acting separately or in combination: (i) as a physical barrier, and (ii) as a high-level heat source.
At the beginning of June the jet stream shifts to the north of the Himalayas and Tibet and takes up position at about 40 degree N and disappears completely over northern India. Climatologists have observed that there is a correspondence between the shifting of the jet and the slowing down of the westerlies over the whole of Eurasia. In fact, the plateau of Tibet becomes very cold in winter, and proves to be the most important factor in causing the advance of the jet far to the south in the middle of October. The hydro-dynamic effect of the Himalayas causes the abrupt onset of summer monsoon at the beginning of June and not the thermally induced low pressure centre over northwest India.
In mid October when the Plateau becomes very cold it causes the advance of the westerly jet south of the Himalayas by bifurcating it into two parts. The summer time heating of the Tibetan Plateau makes it a high level heat source. This 'Heat Engine' produces a thermal anticyclone over this region. A warm core anticyclone (high pressure) is formed over this plateau during the summer monsoon period. The formation of this anticyclone takes place in the middle part of the troposphere at 500 mb level. It is the result of a process called anti-cyclogenesis. The anticyclone at 500 mb at Tibet weakens the western sub-tropical jet-stream south of Himalayas, but produces tropical easterly jet on the southern side of the anticyclone. These upper air easterlies descend into the permanent high pressure area formed over the southern Indian Ocean and intensifies the high pressure area already present there. It is from this high pressure cell that the onshore winds start blowing towards the thermally induced low pressure area, developed in the northern part of the Indian subcontinent. This tropical easterly jet stream first develops in longitudes east of India and then extends westwards across India and the Arabian Sea to eastern Africa. Blowing along Kolkata-Banglore axis the air under this jet descends over the Indian ocean and intensifies its high pressure cell, so as to finally move as south-west monsoon. After crossing the equator these surface winds change direction and become South-West monsoon.
The Monex data supports theory that higher the intensity of the tropical easterly jet greater would be potency of the high pressure cell over the Indian Ocean and stronger would be impact of south-west monsoon.
6.0 GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES ON CLIMATE CHANGE
On June 30, 2008 India's first National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) outlining existing and future policies and programs addressing climate mitigation and adaptation was released. The plan identified eight core "national missions" running through 2017 and directs ministries to submit detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change by December 2008.
Emphasizing the overriding priority of maintaining high economic growth rates to raise living standards, the plan "identifies measures that promote our development objectives while also yielding co-benefits for addressing climate change effectively." It says these national measures would be more successful with assistance from developed countries, and pledges that India's per capita greenhouse gas emissions "will at no point exceed that of developed countries even as we pursue our development objectives."
6.1 National Missions
National Solar Mission: The NAPCC aims to promote the development and use of solar energy for power generation and other uses with the ultimate objective of making solar competitive with fossil-based energy options. The plan includes:
Specific goals for increasing use of solar thermal technologies in urban areas, industry, and commercial establishments;
- A goal of increasing production of photovoltaics to 1000 MW/year; and
- A goal of deploying at least 1000 MW of solar thermal power generation.
Other objectives include the establishment of a solar research center, increased international collaboration on technology development, strengthening of domestic manufacturing capacity, and increased government funding and international support.
National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency: Current initiatives are expected to yield savings of 10,000 MW by 2012. Building on the Energy Conservation Act 2001, the plan recommends:
- Mandating specific energy consumption decreases in large energy-consuming industries, with a system for companies to trade energy-savings certificates;
- Energy incentives, including reduced taxes on energy-efficient appliances; and
- Financing for public-private partnerships to reduce energy consumption through demand-side management programs in the municipal, buildings and agricultural sectors.
National Mission on Sustainable Habitat: To promote energy efficiency as a core component of urban planning, the plan calls for:
- Extending the existing Energy Conservation Building Code;
- A greater emphasis on urban waste management and recycling, including power production from waste;
- Strengthening the enforcement of automotive fuel economy standards and using pricing measures to encourage the purchase of efficient vehicles; and
- Incentives for the use of public transportation.
National Water Mission: With water scarcity projected to worsen as a result of climate change, the plan sets a goal of a 20% improvement in water use efficiency through pricing and other measures.
National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem: The plan aims to conserve biodiversity, forest cover, and other ecological values in the Himalayan region, where glaciers that are a major source of India's water supply are projected to recede as a result of global warming.
National Mission for a "Green India": Goals include the afforestation of 6 million hectares of degraded forest lands and expanding forest cover from 23% to 33% of India's territory.
National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture: The plan aims to support climate adaptation in agriculture through the development of climate-resilient crops, expansion of weather insurance mechanisms, and agricultural practices.
National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change: To gain a better understanding of climate science, impacts and challenges, the plan envisions a new Climate Science Research Fund, improved climate modeling, and increased international collaboration. It also encourage private sector initiatives to develop adaptation and mitigation technologies through venture capital funds.
6.2 Other Programs
The NAPCC also describes other ongoing initiatives, including:
Power Generation: The government is mandating the retirement of inefficient coal-fired power plants and supporting the research and development of IGCC and supercritical technologies.
Renewable Energy: Under the Electricity Act 2003 and the National Tariff Policy 2006, the central and the state electricity regulatory commissions must purchase a certain percentage of grid-based power from renewable sources.
Energy Efficiency: Under the Energy Conservation Act 2001, large energy-consuming industries are required to undertake energy audits and an energy labeling program for appliances has been introduced.
6.3 Implementation
Ministries with lead responsibility for each of the missions are directed to develop objectives, implementation strategies, timelines, and monitoring and evaluation criteria, to be submitted to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change. The Council will also be responsible for periodically reviewing and reporting on each mission's progress. To be able to quantify progress, appropriate indicators and methodologies will be developed to assess both avoided emissions and adaptation benefits.
7.0 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON INDIA
The latest report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stresses the risks of global warming and tries to make a stronger case for governments to adopt policy on adaptation and cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The report predicts a rise in global temperatures of between 0.3 and 4.8 degrees Celsius (0.5 to 8.6 Fahrenheit) and a rise of up to 82 cm (32 inches) in sea levels by the late 21st century due to melting ice and expansion of water as it warms, threatening coastal cities from Shanghai to San Francisco.
Experts say India is likely to be hit hard by global warming. It is already one of the most disaster-prone nations in the world and many of its 1.2 billion people live in areas vulnerable to hazards such as floods, cyclones and droughts. Freak weather patterns will not only affect agricultural output and food security, but will also lead to water shortages and trigger outbreaks of water and mosquito-borne diseases such as diarrhea and malaria in many developing nations. All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change including food access, utilisation of land, and price stability. Studies show that wheat and rice yields were decreasing due to climatic changes.
The IPCC lead authors said India, like many other developing nations, is likely to suffer losses in all major sectors of the economy including energy, transport, farming and tourism.
For example, evidence suggests tourists will choose to spend their holidays at higher altitudes due to cooler temperatures or the sea level rises, hitting beach resorts. India ranked as the most vulnerable of 51 countries in terms of beach tourism, while Cyprus is the least vulnerable in one study which was examined by the IPCC scientists. Extreme weather may also harm infrastructure such as roads, ports and airports, impacting delivery of goods and services.
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