Two rising powers in two different eras (China and imperial Germany compared)

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 Two rising powers in two different eras (China and imperial Germany compared)

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• Rise of China: All now agree that the rise of Xi Jinping's China can define the world in 21st century. The industrial and technological strength of PRC is about to exceed that of the USA.
• Hard power: China is the second-largest defence spender, and is the biggest force in Asia-Pacific. Its further rise will change the global equilibrium which exists around the US (post 1991).
• Imperial Germany and USSR: When imperial Germany rose in 1880s, it led to the first World War. When USSR rose in 1940s, it led to the Cold War. What will China's rise lead to?
• Story of imperial Germany: Britain and France dominated Europe and the world in 1880s, when Germany was unified, and became a large industrial power. It now needed markets for its products, and friction began. 

1. Weltpolik - Germany embarked upon Weltpolitk (world politics expansive doctrine)
2. In response, Britain and France joined hands with Russia in the 'Triple Entente'
3. Net result was the first World War

• Differences: The rise of Germany in 19th and 20th centuries, and rise of China in 21st are different.

1. Germany's capitalist classes wanted new economic territories, and an imperial struggle started. But China and US are not colonial powers.
2. China and US are integrated closely in global economy. They are trade parterns.
3. Germany wanted to rise, via the war. Instead, it fell. And then came Hitler, and the second world war. But China hasn't fought a single war in 40 years. It is still growing (no 'maximum moment').

• The new Cold War? The US and China may enter into a new Cold War, but global scene will be different. 

1. During 1950-90, US and USSR were the only two poles of the world system, with no third pole. The rest were part of Non Aligned Movements, and closer to one of the two.
2. Today, China is not building an ideological bloc at all, but focusing only on economy. And there are many regional powers as well, with Russia being the hegemon in central Asia, India being big in South Asia, and Turkey in West Asia.

• US contained the USSR: In the first world war, the US did everything to contain and bankrupt the USSR, by building military alliances and starting a costly arms race. Today, it is trying to build the "Quad" in Asia Pacific against China. But it won't work.
• Containing China: The problems are -

1. Anti-China alliance is just not getting built. There is no NATO in Asia-Pacific.
2. The trade war and tech war launched by President Trump have not met their objectives. US could not even isolate one Chinese firm - Huawei - which is growing.
3. In the first cold war, US faced the threat of a possible alliance between USSR and China, and weaned China away. But today China and Russia are already deeply aligned (and Russia isn't the 1970s China).

• Summary : The rise of China now presents the US with an altogether new challenge. 

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