The ambit and the limits of ‘diaspora diplomacy’ (Why India should not push one narrative for all Indians abroad)

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 The ambit and the limits of ‘diaspora diplomacy’ (Why India should not push one narrative for all Indians abroad)

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• Houston and Ahmedabad: PM Modi and President Trump addressed huge joint rallies at these two places, with an underlying message that political support for Mr Modi will also translate into that for Mr Trump. In 2020, more than 30 lakh Indian-origin people will be voting in US Presidential elections.
• What exactly is the Indian diaspora: When Modi and Trump address the large-sized Indian diaspora in US, there is the assumption that it is not only India's "soft power" but also a "fully transferable political vote bank". Is this really so?
• Two types: Of all people of Indian origin living abroad, there are two types - (1) Indian expatriates, and (2) Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs). So when Indian govt. raises issues related to attacks on PIOs, often they are citizens of that nation, and not Indian citizens.
• Facts on Indian diaspora:

1. It is 1.75 crore individuals large
2. They remit more than $78 billion annually to India
3. These people are seen as more successful and so impact the thinking of family members back home
4. Joint rallies with world leaders is using this point to exploit Modi's personal political capital to the fullest

• Faulty assumptions: This assumption by team Modi that they can constantly keep leveraging the "dual power" of diaspora (locally in their nation, and with Indians back in India) is wrong.

1. Transferability of vote has not been proven for sure, till date. Harper lost in Canada (2015), Cameron lost the Brexit referendum in the UK (2016), and Netanyahu hasn't secured any majority in Israel (2020)  [all had had joint rallies with Modi]
2. A reason is that there are too few PIOs in these countries
3. Another reason is that those attending these rallies are not representative of the diaspora

• What about the Boris Johnson win 2019: The British-Indian community generally leans towards Labour (in UK), but Boris (Conservative) used Modi in his campaigns! He won handsomely. But in 29 of the 30 constituencies with Asians more than 25%, it was Labour that won.
• What about 2016 US: 77% of Indian Americans voted Hillary Clinton (Democratic Party) and not Trump (only 16%).
• Don't paint them with same brush: Many politically active members of Indian diaspora hold the Indian govt's actions to a higher standard, especially with thinks like Kashmir & Article 370, and the CAA NPR issues. They love a democratic and secular India, not a sectarian one. For the Indian govt., it is important to realise that it will have to appeal to all kind of Indian-origin people abroad!
• Nehru's vision: In 1957, he coldly told the Lok Sabha that once an Indian gave up Indian citizenship and took some other, we have no vested interest in him after that. Politically they are no more Indians. Later govts. tried to be more warm, but the present one is involving itself with day-to-day micro operational issues also (visa, etc.).
• Crossing the red line: Sadly, there are open threats about interfering in other nations' internal political systems. A senior BJP leader openly tweeted that it will be forced to play a role in US elections, as Bernie Sanders (opponent of Trump) was not pro-Modi govt. The local Indian-American groups are also now polarised, and fighting with each other (a dangerous sign).
• What about local assimilation: When India will interfere openly, the years of local assimilation that Indian-origin people have worked hard for, gets weakened. Those people want equal respect as local citizens, not as immigrants. If the Indian govt. continues to claim their political loyalties, it is a matter of time before local sentiment against Indian-origin people turns hostile.
• Summary : The present government's aggressive leveraging of Indian-origin communities in various countries is not only ill-informed, but dangerous for those communities too.

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