The Ladakh warning (India China relations)

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 The Ladakh warning (India China relations)

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• The border incident: The government of India has finally dismissed China's accusations against the Indian Army for crossing the LCA. The PLA has done so on the Indian side of LAC, disrupting patrolling, and destroying posts and bridges at Galwan Nala.
• LAC, Articles 370 and 35A: China was upset over Ladakh being made a Union Territory, and deemed it a violation of its sovereignty. The matter was raised at the UNSC, but India rejected all accusations.
• Since the 1980s: Slowly and steadily, China has been gaining control over a massive territory in Eastern Ladakh since 1980s, although India keeps engaging in "differing perception theory" of LAC.

1. Demchok-Kuyul sector - Chinese encroached in the 45-km long region, and local Changpas lost grazing grounds in Skakjung.
2. Various pieces of Skakjung were lost over the decades from 1980s to 2008.
3. PLA kept using nomadic Rebo routes for patrolling, which Indian Army avoided. Border defence shrank.
4. Chip Chap area - PLA focused on this desolate region since the 2000s. Chinese have easy access to this region in July-August. The "2013 Depsang stand-off" saw PLA making remote camps 18-19 km inside Indian territory.
5. Shyam Saran report (2013) showed how 640 sqkm area was lost to the Chinese, and Indian Army was not allowed to reach Rakinala (near DBO - Daulat Beg-Olde) where in 2008 the IAF reactivated highest landing strips. More airbases provoked the PLA in Depsang (in 2013)

• Army's denial: It rejected the loss of territory, but cited change in river's course as a reason for loss. India's stepped-up constructions had provoked China. Recently, the BRO has built the 260 km long Shayok-DBO road, which has provoked the May PLA intrusion (at Galwan).
• Pangong-Tso: In May, forces had physical scuffles over area denial matters. At Tso, troops are chasing each other in high-speed boats! PLA is simply trying to push Indian westward of the Indus and Shyok rivers (to reclaim the 1960 line).
• Border analysis: Of the total 857 km border in Ladakh, 489 km is LAC and rest 368 is IB (International Border). Trig Heights and Demchok are contested points. At eight points, both have differing perceptions. But now, China has raised fresh dispute at Pangong Tso (83 sqkm) and Chumur (80 sqkm). The 1962 battle site was Pangong Tso and Chushul.
• Sirijap range: This lake's northern bank is Sirijap range, from where the 1 to 8 "finger series" jut out. India wants to hold on to Chumur, to keep Manali-Leh route safe.
• Three-pronged strategy: The PLA wants to take the lake at Lukung through -

1. attacking from Sirijap in north,
2. from Chuchul in south, and
3. through the lake water in the middle.

• If they take it, then Indian access to entire Chip Chap plains, Aksai China (east) and Shayok Valley (north) can be cut off. India will then be forced to accept both Indus and Shyok rivers as natural boundaries.
• Bigger threat: Once China gets access to southern side of Karakoram, it can approach Siachen Glacier from Depsang corridor, and meet at Tashkurgan junction from where CPEC goes into Gilgit-Baltistan.
• Bad for India: That will endanger Nubra, and maybe even Siachen. China's entry into Changla-pass will threaten Indus Valley. China may be trying to take the waters from Shyok, Galwan and Chang-Cenmo rivers for its arid Aksai China region.
• Summary : The Chinese incursions into Ladakh region are part of a bigger pattern, and India must give a befitting reply.

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