Return to chaos in Afghanistan? (US Taliban deal is an ominous development)

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 Return to chaos in Afghanistan? (US Taliban deal is an ominous development)

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• US Taliban deal: The hurriedly done "Doha peace deal" between US and Afghan Taliban will now lead to a civil war in Afghanistan, and not lasting peace. Instead of having the intra-Afghan peace talk BEFORE the deal, US expects it  AFTER the  deal. Actually, the US is exiting with a face-saving deal.
• What President Trump wants: He wants to exit fast, and peace is not his first priority.

1. First objective - Trump wants domestic political benefits ("I got US out of Afghan war")
2. Second objective - US is trying a face-saving exit - how exactly? The deal says that Taliban will sever its links with other terror groups like Al Qaeda and Islamic State! So Trump's claim will be that US entered Afghanistan to en al-Qaeda and it has done so.

• Taliban benefits: The Taliban now is legitimised as an actor inside Afghanistan, and hence had been playing "hit and wait“ for many years now. They also kept talking to the US, without agreeing to any ceasefire. Trump's last attempt to punish them, by calling off the deal in 2019, didn't deter them.
• Taliban's stand: They refused to consider the Afghan government legitimate, and refused to talk to it. They want all foreign troops to leave before any talks may happen. They have constantly attacked Afghan security forces. Finally, the US may simply let a small force stay back (to keep watching Iran).
• Afghan High Peace Council: This was estd. in 2010 by then-President Hamid Karzai. It wanted the intra-Afghan peace dialogue.

1. The Taliban have rejected any intra-Afghan dialogue.
2. Taliban kept attacking members of the High Peace Council.
3. It will walk away from any such dialogue, and try to capture Kabul for itself.
4. Prisoner swap clause in Doha deal wants 5000 Taliban prisoners released, something President Ghani is against.

• Wrong timing: This deal comes when Kabul is unstable, and Mr Ghani and Mr Abdullah are opposing each other (post the 2019 elections). Both claim victory. The US brought both sides together in 2014, but not this time. In 2014, the National Unity govt. had Ghani as President and Abdullah as CEO.
• No patience: President Trump lost all patience this time, and special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad didn't pursue reconciliation. Now Ghani and Abdullah have to directly face the Taliban.
• What Taliban want: They are waiting for the internal struggle between Ghani and Abdullah to widen the fracture in security  forces and bureaucracy. Then, it will attack, take Kabul, and impose itself on entire country. Civil war is certain.
• One after another: The Taliban will fight the security forces while they take one city after another. Chaos awaits  everyone now.
• Summary : The hurriedly done Doha Peace deal between US and the Taliban has opened the way for the next Afghan civil war, as the top two politicians are at war with each other already!

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