Putting world together again (We can recover, but rivalries will delay everything)

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 Putting world together again (We can recover, but rivalries will delay everything)

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Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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• Tough to fathom: The sheer scale of the pandemic is so huge, that its full economic and social impact is extremely tough to guess, for now.
• Post pandemic environment: Yuval Noah Harari (of "Sapiens" fame) writes that the decisions of next few weeks will shape the world for years to come. The world will be structurally a different place.
• Washington Naval Conference: Great Powers had met in 1921-22, after the Great War (WW I), and a flu had just hit the world. Great Powers wanted to contain military aggression. So a limit on size of battleships followed, and also on naval deployments. That's it. They missed the impact of the "Treaty of Versailles" on Germany (the rise of Hitler). 
• 2020: The Great Powers trust each other even less, now. Will nations come together for a "2020 Pandemic Conference" to save the world from here on?
• US China rivalry: This will intensify, and many nations will align with one or the other depending on their own benefits. US is very insecure now due to massive mistakes in managing the pandemic, and that can spur some actions.
• What happens to China: While China is in a strong position (relatively) to help the world bounce back, there will be intense efforts to harm it economically and politically. If a new Cold War starts, the world's recovery will be affected.
• China's own goals: It has clearly expressed its 2035 and 2050 goals already, and might like to advance those by a few years now (since others are in trouble). 
• Defence spending: If the US realises it, and agrees to it, the defence spending worldwide can be curbed strongly to work on social health. That needs trust between nations. 
• Can anyone replace China: The sheer scale of China's manufacturing means that neither US, nor India, nor ASEAN or Bangladesh can replace it fully. China also buys huge amount of grains from the US. So economic deals will happen, but alternatives will be searched.
• Iran's case: Iran is hit badly by the pandemic, and the US is unrelenting on sanctions. So the net results can be dramatic in Middle East, as Iran is a very big nation. US is likely to abandon Afghanistan, and the net result will be a resurgence of Russia in this region.
• What about India: If we stay the course, manage the economy, and go multilateral (like always), we can help everyone in the process.
• Summary : The evolving world political relations will be defined by some key trends, including how US manages itself and reacts to Chinese resurgence post-pandemic.

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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