Fail-safe exit for America, but a worry for India (The Afghan peace deal is bad for India)

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 Fail-safe exit for America, but a worry for India (The Afghan peace deal is bad for India)

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment


    • Afghan Peace Deal: The 2020 peace deal between US and Taliban is not likely to bring any peace to Afghanistan, but may bring a lot of instability to south Asian region. The only reason it was done was to give the US a decent exit, after 19 years of conflict.
    • Three truths: The Taliban negotiated from a position of strength, the US from a position of weakness, and the Afghan govt. was absent in it! So net result will be a long period of strife.
    • From 1990s to 2020: The first Taliban govt. in mid-1990s was detested by all world powers, and 'supported' just by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Then Al-Qaeda and 9/11 happened, and the Taliban unravelled under US attack. India and Russia had supported the Northern Alliance (Ahmed Shah Massoud) that fought the Taliban. But today, the Taliban is much wiser, and knows how to play the big daddies of world politics. Also, it likely is not a puppet of Pakistan any more.
    • Talk to the Taliban: Strange as it is, all countries desirous of peace in their own lands or a stake in Afghanistan are talking to the Taliban! Since US is going away, it is good news for Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran. So they are happy talking to the deadly Taliban now. Imagine - from terrorists to legitimate actors!
    • India losing out: India supported Northern Alliance in 1990s, so Taliban was anti-India. But today's Taliban has no anger against India. But India only worked with President Ashraf Ghani, and not the Taliban at all. Why so? Because it has a moralistic approach to these matters - we will deal only with Ghani govt., and of course we won't talk to terrorists (domestic political compulsions). But that is not smart statecraft.
    • What India will face now:
      1. China is directly involved with the Taliban, and will ensure that India's influence is minimised there.
      2. Iran will not be as friendly towards India, as India has followed the US line and stopped oil imports.
      3. Russia is no longer India's exclusive friend now; India has herself ended that exclusivity
      4. Pakistan would definitely target India in Afghanistan. Since US will use Pakistan to support the peace deal, Pakistan's edge gets stronger.
      5. India quickly needs to build a counter-strategy, but the rulers here are focused only on domestic politics as of now.
    • Kashmiri youth: It is not impossible to imagine some Kashmiri youth thinking that if the Taliban could drive the US out, why can they not take the Indian establishment head-on? That will lead to new insurgencies.
    • Contiguous neighbour: India has declared officially that Afghanistan is a contiguous neighbour. That means PoK is India's. So China and Pakistan both will respond to that. Since the entire Kashmir issue has assumed top priority for present regime, they will not find it easy to tone down the Aksai Chin and PoK rhetoric.
    • The future: The ultra-fundamentalist Taliban regime's return after the 1996-2001 sting shows a dangerous trend - it is okay to mass murder your own people to gain statehood and legitimacy. Bad idea.
    • Summary : The Afghan peace deal has put India at a loss in multiple ways, and an effective counter-strategy is urgently needed.
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                                                                                                                                                          PT's IAS Academy: Fail-safe exit for America, but a worry for India (The Afghan peace deal is bad for India)
                                                                                                                                                          Fail-safe exit for America, but a worry for India (The Afghan peace deal is bad for India)
                                                                                                                                                          Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!
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