Can't avoid ubiquitous testing (Biomedical industry can zoom with the right approach)

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 Can't avoid ubiquitous testing (Biomedical industry can zoom with the right approach)

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Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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• Tests per day: India may plateau at 1 lakh COVID-19 tests per day, meaning it will be 2 years before 5% of Indians are tested once. Why such a low target at all, when world over, countries are testing at far higher rates (US - million daily tests target, Germany - walk-in test centres)
• Why do it at all: It is to make people safe, and let them feel safe, while working.

1. If they do not feel safe, they will cut back on many non-essential activities - shopping, entertainment, tourism - badly hurting a large segment of economy.
2. In India, 10% of total employment is in hospitality sector (4 crore workers). Without more testing, there will be low confidence, and low spending, retarding growth.

• Human interactions: The virus has minimised interactions between people, further impacting business dealings. Downstream consumption is drying up, so upstream suppliers will sink too. This chain needs to be fixed, by giving people more confidence.
• What about public health expenditure: Not more than Rs.15000 crore is allotted for it recently, but without much better allotments, economic activity will decline more and more as people less safe. Very soon, global investors too will take decisions based on national testing protocols (dangerous news for India).
• Ubiquitous testing: We need it, for many reasons.

1. There is no vaccine today, and will take some time. Even recovery from infection is not a guarantee of no reinfection. So multiple and regular testing of co-workers is needed to make everyone feel safe. The problem of false negative and false positive will continue.
2. If urban workers are to be tested, then around 20 crore people are the target. For safe workplaces, every worker has to be tested at least once every week for the next 1 year (or vaccine arrival time). That means 21 tests per 1000 Indians (1 lakh tests per day is just 0.08 per 1000)
3. Cost of RT-PCR is between Rs.1000 to Rs.2500 per test. It will decline with scale, and can go down to just Rs.500. Total outlay will be around 2.5% of GDP. That is a large sum, but a comatose economy (due to sheer fear) will be deadlier.

• War footing mobilisation: If this is to be achieved, then 2000 labs with 5000 tests per day are needed. It must be decentralised across India. Huge amounts of components (swabs, reagents) will be needed. Alternatives will need to be found.
• Creating employment: A large number of testers, transporters and contact tracers is needed for all this, and that is where new jobs can be generated.
• The world will do it: This logic holds for the whole world, and hence that is a business opportunity too. Indian firms that can supply testing kits cheaply can thrive. It can be the Y2K opportunity for the Biomedicine industry of India. This bottom-of-the-pyramid virus testing product can be India's game changer.
• Summary : For the economy to restart at top pace, confidence in citizens' minds is crucial, and for that we need ubiquitous virus testing protocols.

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