COVID-19 and the crumbling world order(World politics is getting rebooted in strange ways)

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 COVID-19 and the crumbling world order(World politics is getting rebooted in strange ways)

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• All fall down: It is now getting clear that COVID-19 crisis may change the world once and for all, in terms of power, security, and globalisation. The virus went wild as the world was interconnected, and the end of this crisis will bring new realities.
• Failure of today's world order: That COVID-19 could spread so easily everywhere tells us that the institutions created after the second world war (1945 onwards) have not served us well today. It shows they were serving some hegemonic purposes and not humanity at large. The UN Security Council could not meet meaningfully even for this crisis!
• Regional institutions: The SAARC initiative by Modi was interesting, but as SAARC is a dead duck, it didn't last. The European Union is a fantastic structure, but stood powerless as Europe was ravaged. All states turned inwards for helping themselves! Brussels loses in this.
• Lesson learnt: The global institutional structures are actually held hostage by big powers, have little or no cash reserves, and mainly serve big security issues. The 2020s cannot be tackled by them at all. A new structure is needed.
• The rise of China: It seems that China may benefit substantially from all this now. It may have restarted some of its industries, and with an oil price slump, will quickly gather pace.

1. US had simply denied any crisis till it hit hard, and EU turned inwards
2. China started offering help to everyone, including rival Japan
3. The richest Chinese Jack Ma started giving direct help to many nations
4. Propaganda machine will amplify all this
5. China may be able to push through 5G of Huawei, and even the BRI as a model of the future [this may be wrong]

• Neoliberal globalisation: This started in 1980s, and reached its peak by 2008. Today, the pandemic is beating it hollow, and a recession is arriving. The political side of neoliberal globalisation too failed in 2020 - nations decided to isolate and work alone. Hypernationalism may rise, and an inclusive global order may elude the world for a long time. Are we looking at a "poorer, meaner and smaller" world?
• MNCs constrained: Nations will now want to have predictable suppliers, geopolitically less sensitive relations and large national emergency  stocks. So, the free approach of firms regarding production and supplies would be restricted. Profits will be hit. But this may not mean a more equitable and just society, automatically.
• Return of the License Raj: The State will grow stronger, and like the license-quota-permit raj till 1970s and 80s, India may see a more overweening State.
• A big question: Worldwide, citizens want more State presence now, to protect them. The State definitely will enter more decisively everywhere, but whether it will be able to tackle big capital (MNCs) head on, remains to be seen. Generally, the State has been comfortable cozying upto large businesses. Will state-led globalisation replace corporate-led globlisation?
• More insular: It is sad that nations are likely to become more insular, and more anti-immigration. Tougher phyto-sanitary standards may be imposed now, on any imported goods. Border walls may not be considered bad anymore.
• Social discrimination: Indian society has always practised it, and we may see newer "corona forms" emerge soon. That would be the worst legacy of this virus.
• Summary : A new world is likely to emerge out of this coronavirus crisis, one that would be insular, inward-looking and more discriminatory than the globalised neoliberal one we are leaving behind!

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