CONCEPT – UN EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2019

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 CONCEPT – UN EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2019

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• Definition of Emissions gap: It is the difference between the greenhouse gas emission levels consistent with a specific probability of limiting the mean global temperature rise to below 2°C or 1.5°C in 2100 above pre-industrial levels and the GHG emission levels consistent with the global effect of the NDCs, assuming full implementation from 2020.
• Tenth report, 2019: The UN Emissions Gap Report 2019 was the tenth edition of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). It provided the latest assessment of scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and compared these with the emission levels permissible for the world to progress on a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
• Findings: The summary findings are bleak. Countries collectively failed to stop the growth in global GHG emissions, meaning that deeper and faster cuts are now required. Also, a number of encouraging developments have taken place and the political focus on the climate crisis is growing in several countries, with voters and protestors, particularly youth, making it clear that it is their number one issue. In addition, the technologies for rapid and cost-effective emission reductions have improved significantly.
• IPCC reports: As for the science behind this, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued two special reports in 2019:

1. the Climate Change and Land report - on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, and
2. the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate report.

• Both reports voice strong concerns about observed and predicted changes resulting from climate change and provide an even stronger scientific foundation that supports the importance of the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and the need to ensure emissions are on track to achieve these goals.
• UNGA Climate Summit 2019: The United Nations Secretary-General’s Global Climate Action Summit was held in September 2019 and brought together governments, the private sector, civil society, local authorities and international organizations. The aim was to stimulate action and in particular to secure countries’ commitment to enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by 2020 and aim for net zero emissions by 2050.
• Seven Technical facts in 2019 Report:

1. GHG emissions continue to rise, despite scientific warnings and political commitments. GHG emissions have risen at a rate of 1.5 per cent per year in the last decade, stabilizing only briefly between 2014 and 2016. Total GHG emissions, including from land-use change, reached a record high of 55.3 GtCO2e in 2018. Fossil CO2 emissions from energy use and industry, which dominate total GHG emissions, grew 2.0 per cent in 2018, reaching a record 37.5 GtCO2 per year. There is no sign of GHG emissions peaking in the next few years; every year of postponed peaking means that deeper and faster cuts will be required. By 2030, emissions would need to be 25 per cent and 55 per cent lower than in 2018 to put the world on the least-cost pathway to limiting global warming to below 2˚C and 1.5°C respectively.
2. G20 members account for 78 per cent of global GHG emissions. Collectively, they are on track to meet their limited 2020 Cancun Pledges, but seven countries are currently not on track to meet 2030 NDC commitments, and for a further three, it is not possible to say. As G20 members account for around 78 per cent of global GHG emissions (including land use), they largely determine global emission trends and the extent to which the 2030 emissions gap will be closed. This report therefore pays close attention to G20 members. G20 members with 2020 Cancun Pledges are collectively projected to overachieve these by about 1 GtCO2e per year. However, several individual G20 members (Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, South Africa, the United States of America) are currently projected to miss their Cancun Pledges or will not achieve them with great certainty. Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have not made 2020 pledges and pledges from several countries that meet their targets are rather unambitious. On the progress of G20 economies towards their NDC targets, six members (China, the EU28, India, Mexico, Russia and Turkey) are projected to meet their unconditional NDC targets with current policies. Among them, three countries (India, Russia and Turkey) are projected to be more than 15 percent lower than their NDC target emission levels. These results suggest that the three countries have room to raise their NDC ambition significantly.
3. Although the number of countries announcing net zero GHG emission targets for 2050 is increasing, only a few countries have so far formally submitted long-term strategies to the UNFCCC. An increasing number of countries have set net zeroemission targets domestically and 65 countries and major subnational economies, such as the region of California and major cities worldwide, have committed to net zero emissions by 2050. However, only a few long-term  strategies submitted to the UNFCCC have so far committed to a timeline for net zero emissions, none of which are from a G20 member. Five G20 members (the EU and four individual members) have committed to long-term zero emission targets, of which three are currently in the process of passing legislation and two  have recently passed legislation. The remaining 15 G20 members have not yet committed to zero emission targets.
4. The emissions gap is large. In 2030, annual emissions need to be 15 GtCO2e lower than current unconditional NDCs imply for the 2°C goal, and 32 GtCO2e lower for the 1.5°C goal. Estimates of where GHG emissions should be in 2030 in order to be consistent with a least-cost pathway towards limiting global warming to the specific temperature goals have been calculated from the scenarios that were compiled as part of the mitigation pathway assessment of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C report.
5. Dramatic strengthening of the NDCs is needed in 2020. Countries must increase their NDC ambitions threefold to achieve the well below 2°C goal and more than fivefold to achieve the 1.5°C goal. The ratchet mechanism of the Paris Agreement foresees strengthening of NDCs every five years. Parties to the Paris Agreement identified 2020 as a critical next step in this process, inviting countries to communicate or update their NDCs by this time. Given the time lag between policy decisions and associated emission reductions, waiting until 2025 to strengthen NDCs will be too late to close the large 2030 emissions gap.
6. The challenge is clear. The recent IPCC special reports clearly describe the dire consequences of inaction and are backed by record temperatures worldwide along with enhanced extreme events.
7. Decarbonizing the global economy will require fundamental structural changes, which should be designed to bring multiple co-benefits for humanity and planetary support systems. If the multiple co-benefits associated with closing the emissions gap are fully realized, the required transition will contribute in an essential way to achieving the United Nations 2030 Agenda with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
8. Renewables and energy efficiency, in combination with electrification of end uses, are key to a successful energy transition and to driving down energy-related CO2 emissions. The necessary transition of the global energy sector will require significant investments compared with a business-as-usual scenario. Climate policies that are consistent with the 1.5°C goal will require upscaling energy system supply-side investments to between US$1.6 trillion and US$3.8 trillion per year globally on average over the 2020–2050 time frame, depending on how rapid energy efficiency and conservation efforts can be ramped up.

• Suggestions for India: Key suggestions are –

1. Plan the transition from coal-fired power plants
1. Develop an economy-wide green industrialization strategy towards zero-emission technologies
2. Expand mass public transit systems
3. Develop domestic electric vehicle targets working towards 100 per cent new sales of zero-emission cars
2. India’s NDC has three numeric targets for 2030: (1) reduce emissions intensity by 33 per cent to 35 per cent from 2005 levels, (2) achieve an installed power capacity of 40 per cent from non-fossil fuel sources and (3) create an additional carbon sink of 2.5–3.0 GtCO2e from forest and tree cover.
3. India has continued its efforts towards achieving its renewable and intensity targets, though the previous year saw no substantial course change. In 2018, renewable deployment exceeded conventional fuels though is projected to remain short of the 175 GW target by 2022.
4. The deployment of renewables has been let down by unclear, inconsistent taxation and import duty norms. Interrelated factors have stymied India’s uptake of fossil fuel infrastructure, including a financial crisis that has led multiple coal power plants to be deemed as non-performing or stressed assets.
5. In addition, the National Clean Air Programme released in 2019 aims to reduce PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations by 25 per cent to 30 per cent, and provides additional motivation to shut down old coal power plants.
6. India has simultaneously continued its efforts to broaden energy access. India reported the 100 per cent electrification of households in early 2019 (India, Ministry of Power 2019), with likely implications for the future of India’s energy demand. The Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthaan Mahabhiyan (KUSUM) scheme launched in early 2019 is aimed at promoting solar energy in rural areas with the target to install 26 GW of solar agricultural pumps by 2022.
7. India also released an India Cooling Action Plan in 2019 to provide cooling services while keeping their GWP minimal by reducing energy and refrigerant demand.
8. India has also begun deliberating policies to electrify public and private modes of transport. The second phase of the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles (FAME) was launched in 2019, aiming to support the uptake of electric two-wheelers, three-wheelers, four-wheelers and buses, with projected cumulative savings of 7.2 MtCO2e.

• Eleven useful climate concepts -

1. Cancun pledge: During 2010, many countries submitted their existing plans for controlling greenhouse gas emissions to the Climate Change Secretariat and these proposals were formally acknowledged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Developed countries presented their plans in the shape of economywide targets to reduce emissions, mainly up to 2020, while developing countries proposed ways to limit their growth of emissions in the shape of plans of action.
2. Carbon dioxide emission budget (or carbon budget): For a given temperature rise limit, for example a 1.5°C or 2°C long-term limit, the corresponding carbon budget reflects the total amount of carbon emissions that can be emitted for temperatures to stay below that limit.
3. Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e): A way to place emissions of various radiative forcing agents on a common footing by accounting for their effect on climate. It describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. Greenhouse gas emissions are taken as the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.
4. Carbon intensity: The amount of emissions of CO2 released per unit of another variable such as gross domestic product, output energy use, transport or agricultural/forestry products.
5. Global warming potential: An index representing the combined effect of the differing times greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere and their relative effectiveness in absorbing outgoing infrared radiation.
6. Greenhouse gases: The atmospheric gases responsible for causing global warming and climatic change. The major greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Less prevalent, but very powerful, GHGs are hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).
7. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC): INDCs are submissions from countries describing the national actions that they intend to take to reach the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. Once a country has ratified the Paris Agreement, its INDC is automatically converted to its NDC (see below), unless it chooses to further update it. INDCs are thus only used in this publication in reference to countries that have not yet ratified the Paris Agreement.
8. Kigali Amendment: The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer aims for the phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) by cutting their production and consumption.
9. Kyoto Protocol: An international agreement, standing on its own, and requiring separate ratification by governments, but linked to the UNFCCC. The Kyoto Protocol, among other things, sets binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries.
10. Mitigation: In the context of climate change, a human intervention to reduce the sources, or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Examples include using fossil fuels more efficiently for industrial processes or electricity generation, switching to solar energy or wind power, improving the insulation of buildings and expanding forests and other ‘sinks’ to remove greater amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere.
11. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC): Submissions by countries that have ratified the Paris Agreement which presents their national efforts to each the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. New or updated NDCs are to be submitted in 2020 and every five years thereafter. NDCs thus represent a country’s current ambition/target for reducing emissions nationally. These can be unconditional, intended or conditional.

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