CONCEPT – THE TRUTH ABOUT GLOBAL EMISSIONS

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 CONCEPT – THE TRUTH ABOUT GLOBAL EMISSIONS

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• Facts about global emissions: Climate change and global warming are a huge challenge, as human emissions of greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide, methane, and others – have increased global temperatures by around 1 degree  since pre-industrial times. To mitigate climate change, UN member parties have set a target, in the Paris Agreement, of limiting average warming to 2? above pre-industrial temperatures.

1. Global average temperatures have increased by more than 1 degree since pre-industrial.
2. CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are now well over 400ppm – their highest levels in over 8,00,000 years.
3. Globally we emit over 36 billion tonnes of CO2 per year – this continues to increase.
4. There are large differences – more than 100-fold – in per capita CO2 emissions between countries.
5. Today, China is the world’s largest CO2 emitter – accounting for more than one-quarter of emissions. This is followed by the USA (15%); EU-28 (10%); India (7%); and Russia (5%).
6. The USA has contributed most to global CO2 emissions to date, accounting for 25% of cumulative emissions. This is followed by the EU-28 (22%); China (13%); Russia (6%) and Japan (4%).
7. A large amount of CO2 is embedded in traded goods – this means some countries’ emissions increase while others decrease when we look at emissions based on consumption rather than production.
8. There are large inequalities in CO2 emissions: the world’s poorest have contribute less than 1% of emissions, but will be the most vulnerable to climate change impacts.
9. The world is not on-track to meet its agreed target of limiting warming to 2 degrees. Under current policies, expected warming will be in the range 3.1-3.7 degrees.

• What happens with climate change: A changing climate has a range of potential ecological, physical and health impacts, including extreme weather events (such as floods, droughts, storms, and heatwaves); sea-level rise; altered crop growth; and disrupted water systems. The most extensive source of analysis on the potential impacts of climatic change can be found in the 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.
• The 2019 situation: Beginning a long-awaited decline, global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to grow slightly during 2019, reaching another record high. Total carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry totaled 36.8 billion tons, as per the Global Carbon Project, a 0.6 percent increase from 2018, which was the record. So humans are blowing through their carbon budget the way an addict blows through cash. Carbon dioxide pollution is higher than it’s ever been.
• UNEP 2019 report: A bleak report from the U.N. Environment Program detailed how off-target the world remains in its collective goal of limiting the Earth’s warming. It said global emissions must fall by nearly 8 percent per year over the next decade to stay in line with the goal of limiting warming to just 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. The globe already has warmed about 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 19th century, according to separate findings by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It also found that 2019 “concludes a decade of exceptional global heat, retreating ice and record sea levels driven by greenhouse gases from human activities.” 
• Who's doing what: Emissions fell in the United States and Europe during 2019, and they are projected to have grown in China (by 2.6 percent), India (1.8 percent) and the rest of the world (by 0.5 percent). The Global Carbon Project found that the burning of natural gas is booming, growing by an additional 2.6 percent this year after strong growth last year. Petroleum use in automobiles, airplanes and other vehicles continues to increase around the globe. In China, the world’s largest consumer of coal, natural gas burning grew by nearly 10 percent in 2019 and petroleum use jumped nearly 7 percent.
• Atmospheric CO2 concentrations: The large growth in global CO2 emissions has had a significant impact on the concentrations of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere. Its levels were fairly stable at 270-285 parts per million (ppm) until the 18th century. Since the Industrial Revolution, global CO2 concentrations have been increasing rapidly. 

1. If we look even longer-term – greater than 800,000 years into the past – we see that today’s concentrations are the highest they’ve been for at least 800,000 years.
2. The cycles of peaks and troughs in CO2 concentrations track the cycles of ice ages (low CO2) and warmer interglacials (higher CO2). CO2 concentrations did not exceed 300ppm throughout these cycles – today it is well over 400 ppm.
3. Atmospheric concentrations continue to rise, and have now broken the 400 ppm threshold—considered its highest level in the last three million years. To begin to stabilise—or even reduce—atmospheric CO2 concentrations, our emissions need to not only stabilise but also decrease significantly.
4. Even if the world achieved a stabilization in CO2 emissions, this would not translate into the same for atmospheric concentrations. This is because CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere based on what we call a ‘residence time’. Residence time is the time required for emitted CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere through natural processes in Earth’s carbon cycle. 
5. The length of this time can vary—some CO2 is removed in less than 5 years through fast cycling processes, meanwhile other processes, such as absorption through land vegetation, soils and cycling into the deep ocean can take hundreds to thousands of years. If we stopped emitting CO2 today, it would take several hundred years before the majority of human emissions were removed from the atmosphere.

• Future scenario: There are five scenarios –

1. No climate policies: projected future emissions if no climate policies were implemented; this would result in an estimated 4.1-4.8°C warming by 2100 (relative to pre-industrial temperatures)
2. Current climate policies: projected warming of 3.1-3.7°C by 2100 based on current implemented climate policies
3. National pledges: if all countries achieve their current targets/pledges set within the Paris climate agreement, it’s estimated average warming by 2100 will be 2.6-3.2°C. This will go well beyond the overall target of the Paris Agreement to keep warming “well below 2°C”.
4. 2°C consistent: there are a range of emissions pathways that would be compatible with limiting average warming to 2°C by 2100. This would require a significant increase in ambition of the current pledges within the Paris Agreement.
5. 1.5°C consistent: there are a range of emissions pathways that would be compatible with limiting average warming to 1.5°C by 2100. However, all would require a very urgent and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions.

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