A pandemic prescription (Build confidence and remove fear)

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 A pandemic prescription (Build confidence and remove fear)

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment


    • Two crises together: India is facing two crises at the same time - an economic and a health crisis. Both livelihoods and lives are at stake now.
    • Linked crises: The economy cannot be opened up without addressing the fears of infection and resurgence. The health crisis ensures that people do not consume or work or invest enough, despite govt. assurances. Example of its worst form is massive reverse migration of migrant workers.
    • Flattening the curve: Depsite long lockdowns, India has not flattened the curve, although even that does not make the virus go away. Even flattened curve countries show resurgences - Germany, South Korea and Iran being prime examples.
    • Simple, scalable, credible: There is a way out.
      1. Introduce a wide-ranging "test and isolate" policy throughout India.
      2. Build testing labs in all 7000 blocs across India.
      3. Build dedicated infectious disease wards in all district hospitals across India.
      4. This will keep infection rate below 0.5 % (present rate if 0.007 %).
    • Till we get a vaccine: Until that day arrives, the only way to run the economy is to run isolation programme, coupled with contact tracing and testing. It is cost-effective and less disruptive. It is the safest and simplest path. It can be a long-term plan too, as TB itself kills 4 lakh each year in India.
    • Facts and statistics:
      1. India has 19 lakh hospitals, 95000 ICU beds and 48000 ventilators, across just a few major cities and towns.
      2. For rural areas, we need to upgrade the HWCs (Health and Wellness Centres). That may not need more than Rs.30000 crore.
    • Some steps suggested:
      1. Testing - If all states decide to cover 5% of population (total 7 crore tests per yr) then we need Rs.21000 crore per year (@ Rs.3000 per test).
      2. Contact tracing - To scale this up, use 100% more additional ASHA workers, at Rs.10000 cr per year.
      3. Quarantine - Good facilities are critical to contain this pandemic. If upto 2.5% population has to be isolated at some time, with the poor given some income support, then we need Rs.30000 cr.
      4. Masks for all - Ample quantity would need upto Rs.10000 cr. per year.
      5. Public diagnostic labs - There are 1 lakh labs in India today, and an efficient PPP model can be built.
    • Total investment: These will cost Rs.1 lakh crore per year, while each week of lockdown is worth at least Rs.2 lakh crore! Since we cannot foresee a date when infections will drop drastically, we cannot ease without such a national containment plan. Else, all hell breaks loose.
    • Build confidence: Citizens must get the confidence that the State is effectively managing the health crisis, else the economic recovery will be delayed.
    • Summary : Only a comprehensive pan-India COVID containment strategy will give the desired confidence to citizens to come back to work in full swing.
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                                                                                                                                                                      PT's IAS Academy: A pandemic prescription (Build confidence and remove fear)
                                                                                                                                                                      A pandemic prescription (Build confidence and remove fear)
                                                                                                                                                                      Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!
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