Will India change its ‘No First Use’ policy? (What should India's stand on nukes be)

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 Will India change its ‘No First Use’ policy? (What should India's stand on nukes be)

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• The story till date : From Pokhran-II till 2019, India has followed the self-imposed NFU - No First Use policy in nuclear weapons. It may change in future, is what the official stand is now.
• History of Indian nuclear weapons : The Chinese aggression in 1962 woke India up to the dangers. Then China went nuclear in 1964. PM Indira Gandhi went ahead with Pokharan-I in 1974, as a peaceful nuclear explosion. Then came 20 years of global pressure, but India didn't budge, and did the three tests in 1998. (fission, low-yield and thermonuclear) Soon, Pakistan did its own tests in same month.
• Indian Missiles : The rapidly evolving Indian missile programme could not be utilized to deliver nuclear weapons. But since 1999, India made its NFU policy explicitly clear to the world - India will never carry out a nuclear first-strike, it will ensure minimal deterrence, no first use, and non-use against non-nuclear weapon states.
• CMD : Credible minimum deterrence means an assured second-strike capability. If India is attacked, its nuclear forces would be so spread out that they can survive and retaliate. So CMD needs a strong command and control, strong intelligence, and the will to fire nukes. The NCA (Nuclear Command Authority) controls all nuclear weapons of India (final reporting to the PM).
• Next 10 years : There were rumours that India had developed the "Cold Start Doctrine". Then Pakistan started speaking of "theatre nuclear weapons" - low-yield, battlefield weapons to deter India. India clarified in 2013 that any kind of nuclear attack using any type of weapons would actuate Indian response.
• What if : Suppose Indian Army enters Pakistani territory, and Pak uses TNWs. Then what will India do? Either go the M-A-D way and launch a full-scale attack (mutually assured destruction), and face the Pakistani attack as well. Or try to neutralise Pak nuclear weapons immediately through conventional attack.
• Escalation ladder : If a terror attack happens, and India retaliates, then it will be the time to see how far up in the escalation ladder will both nations be willing to go. 
• Summary : There are multiple possible scenarios in India-Pakistan nuclear weapons entanglement, and only time will tell what direction things take.

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