Red Sea redlines and Yemen's inflection point (Yemen civil war and impact on India)

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 Red Sea redlines and Yemen's inflection point (Yemen civil war and impact on India)

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Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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• Yemen realities : This nation of 2.7 crore and a low per capita income of $944, lying in SW corner of Arabian peninsula is divided between north and south parts - former hilly, fertile and with some oil, and latter largely a desert. Yemen is poor while its northern neighbours are rich.
• Tribal loyalties : Most in south Yemen are Sunnis (like the GCC monarchies), but those in north are largely Zaidi (close to Shias of Iran). South was colonised by British, and became modernised. RIL founder started working from Aden.
• Foreign dabbling : Saudi dabbling in Yemen is decades old, even prior to the Yemen Arab Republic's founding in 1968. A united Republic of Yemen came about in 1990, followed by a civil war quickly crushed.
• Present crisis : In 2004, Shia militia from north (Ansar Allah) led by Hussein al-Houthi (head of Zaidis) rose in revolt against President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Arab Spring movement replaced Saleh in 2011, and put in place A M Hadi. Hadi was chased out in 2014 to Saudi Arabia, and Saleh was killed in 2017. Hadi runs the "internationally recognised" Yemen govt. from Riyadh.
• Why Saudi fears : It is scared of a Houthi-led Yemen becoming an Iran proxy. So, it is leading a coalition of Sunni forces. The "Operation Desert Storm" started in 2015 via aerial bombing against the Houthis. After four years, it's a stalemate (11000 dead and 30 lakh displaced).
• Endgame :

1. Watershed # 1 - Saudi upstream oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais were hit by al-Houthi drones launched from 1300 km away. (suspected as untrue) Oil supplies could be hit continuously in future also. Bad news for all, esp. India. Most oil assets are helpless against such asymmetric attacks.
2. Watershed # 2 - UAE and KSA were at loggerheads in the coalition, and soon the southern port of Aden was left for STC (Southern Transitional Council) what wants an independent South Yemen. It hates Islamists in Yemen (al Qaeda, ISIS,Islah party). We may see Yemen dividing to the pre-1990 border - al-Houthi led north, STC led-South.

• Bab al Mandeb : This strait is the choke point connecting Arabian Sea with Rea Sea, onwards to Suez canal. Most of India's west-bound sea trade passes through it. India needs to start working with all players in the region.
• Price rise : In a slowing economy, every $1 rise in oil will mean a rise by $1.5 b. In 2018-19, India spent $112 b on crude oil. Saudis may also now rethink their $30 b investments with RIL and in Ratnagiri refinery.
• Three things to do : If things go bad, India needs to work on (a) increasing the strategic petro reserves, (b) diversifying crude sources away from West Asia, and (c) more of biofuel.
• Watch the drones : The massive terrorist threat that drones pose is now clear. Prepare for it.
• Summary : The game-changing drone attack on Saudi oil facilities is a grim reminder of the many vulnerabilities that India possesses in this game.

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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