Macron’s wake-up call to EU (EU must be more assertive)

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 Macron’s wake-up call to EU (EU must be more assertive)

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Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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• Macron's warning: In issuing a warning to Europe that Trump's "America First" risked pushing Europe to the edge of the precipice, French President Macron ensured the shock was delivered well. Additional risks included a resentful Russia, and a determined China.
• EU's evolution: From the EEC of 1957 formed by 6 nations via Treaty of Rome, to the 1992 Treaty of Maastricht, the Euro got created in a post-Cold War Europe with a unified Germany. The 2007 Treaty of Lisbon gave a permanent president to the European Council. But did EU's sovereignty truly take shape? (EEC - European Economic Community)
• From 6 to 28: While the original 6 - Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands - to the present day 28 nations, homogeneity gave way to diversity. UK is about to leave.
• Too much multiplicity: With Europe, too many groupings created diffusion and dilution.

1. NATO has 27 European members, mostly from EU
2. Eurozone has 19 (of 28) EU nations
3. Schengen common visa covers 26 EU nations
4. European Economic Area has 31 nations
5. Council of Europe (1949) has 47 members

• In all this, the EU lost its political heft. The original idea was to make a West European group that wanted closer economic ties, with NATO as security provider. It was all about liberal democracy. Today, Hungary's Viktor Orban says he represents "illiberal democracy".
• NATO and security: As per Macron, US cannot be relied upon any more to provide security, as the unilateral decision to withdraw US troops from Syria showed. (no consultation with NATO allies) Fact also is that US always contributed more to NATO funding.

1. Common budget: Of $2.5 b, US is 22%, Germany 15%, UK and France 10% each.
2. Defence budget: US contributes the most. It's overall spend is 3.6% of GDP ($700 b) but EU nations spend 1% to 2%. That was to be raised to 2% by 2024.

• Convergence made it work: Prior to Donald Trump's arrival, the divergence worked, but not anymore. Trump doesn't love the "European project"! US's oil self-sufficiency is weaning it away from Middle East, and into Indo-Pacific. So its support for NATO will go down.
• Russian case: Macron wants EU to go for a rapproachement with Russia, to take it away from China, but that makes Poland etc. nervous.
• BRI: EU's 14 countries, including Italy, are now a part of China's Belt and Road Initiative China is working on 16+1 format with East European countries - 11 are EU states and 13 NATO members. So taking a common stand on 5G, Huawei is tough. EU couldn't give concrete relief to Iran after US pullout from nuclear deal.
• What EU stands for: It stands for a rules-based order, but without asserting political and security sovereignty, it cannot emerge as a strategic actor. The Brexit, and Trump's arrival, may hasten that process now.
• Summary : Trump's arrival and exit of UK may end up making the EU much stronger and strategically important in world affairs.

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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