And end to arms control consensus (START ends in 2021, exposing nuclear weapons to misuse)

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 And end to arms control consensus (START ends in 2021, exposing nuclear weapons to misuse)

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• US Russia INF Treaty : In 1987, the US and Soviet Union did the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty to eliminate all ground-based (not air or water-based) missiles of ranges 500 - 5500 km. That was achieved by 1991. In 2018, US pulled out of INF treaty.
• New START 2010 - 2021 : The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was done in 2010, valid till 2021. It can be extended by 5 yrs, but seems unlikely.
• What problems came up : US indicated in 2019 that Russia is probably doing nuclear tests, against the moratorium imposed by the CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty). Perhaps the US may now start nuclear testing too, which could re-start a nuclear arms race. Very bad idea!
• The dangerous 1980s : Soviet invasion of Afghanistan set in motion a chain reaction of US-Soviet actions, including missile deployments in Europe, and jihad in Afghanistan.
• Arms control : Soon US and USSR realised the futility of it. So, a 3-track arms control was initiated

1. Track 1 - Strategic weapons with > 5500 km range, leading to START 1991. It put a limit of 6000 warheads, and 1600 delivery vehicles.
2. Track 2 - Intermediate range missiles (500 - 5500 km), leading to INF Treaty in 1987.
3. Track 3 - Nuclear and Space talks to discuss US Star Wars, but nothing happened.

• There was one more in 1972 - The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty) - between the United States and the Soviet Union on the limitation of the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems used in defending areas against ballistic missile-delivered nuclear weapons. Signed in 1972, it was in force for the next 30 years.In 2002 the United States withdrew.
• INF was successful : In a bipolar world, the INF succeeded in getting thousands of missiles and production facilities destroyed and shut down. On-site inspections happened.
• 1991 and beyond : As USSR fell, arms race ended. Soviet allies joined the NATO and the EU. But the US kept expanding its technological lead with precision strike weapons.
• Russian approach : It was upset with US's 2002 withdrawal from ABM Treaty. Russia saw the threat with US tech advantage, and re-started investing in offensive weapons.
• 2017 US NSS and NPR : The US Nuclear Posture Review 2017 identified Russia and China as the two problems for the US in the future. The focus was on Indo-Pacific. US felt that INF was hampering its interests, as most Chinese missiles (ballistic and cruise) are in the 500-5500 km range.
• 2011 New Start : It succeeded the 1991 START, and limited launchers and warheads. US will decide in 2020 whether to continue it beyond 2021. If US pulls out, then for the first time since 1972, US and Russia will be unconstrained by any arms control arrangement.
• CTBT : This deal needs ratification by US, China, Iran, Israel, Egypt and adherence by India, Pakistan and North Korea. So it will never enter into force. And if US now restarts nuclear weapons testing, it's all over!
• More than a Cold War : It was bipolar then, but multipolar now. Add cyber and space to it, and escalation is certain. The nuclear arms control since 1945 may break down.
• Summary : The signals are clear - US actions on bilateral nuclear treaties may push the world into a new, more dangerous, multi-polar nuclear arms race.

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