An update on India Myanmar relations
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One year of a bloody military coup in Myanmar
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- The story: On Feb 1, 2022, the military coup of Myanmar completed one full bloody year. The time was marked by continuous civil strife, and consequent brtual military repression.
- Why the coup: The coup was perhaps driven by the military's goal to preserve its central role in Burmese politics. It felt getting sidelined, as regular democratic processes began taking hold. The Defence Services Act also imposed a mandatory retirement age of 65 for the Armed Forces' Commander-in-Chief. Min Aung Hlaing, the incumbent, would have been forced to retire on his 65th birthday in July 2021.
- Understanding the crisis: A military coup in Myanmar began on the morning of Feb 1, 2021, when democratically elected members of the country's ruling party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), were deposed by the Tatmadaw - Myanmar's military - which then vested power in a stratocracy (government by military forces). Acting president Myint Swe proclaimed a year-long state of emergency and declared power had been transferred to Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services Min Aung Hlaing. It declared the results of the November 2020 general election invalid and stated its intent to hold a new election at the end of the state of emergency.
- Mass protests erupted, and have took place continuously across Myanmar since the military seized control.
- Elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi and members of her National League for Democracy (NLD) party were among those detained, tried and prosecuted.
- After the coup, a parallel government named the National Unity Government (NUG) was formed which soon lost momentum. Instability ruined the economy, with the World Bank terming it as “critically weak” which in turn weakened the Government’s efforts to manage the pandemic.
- Myanmar-ASEAN relations: The Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) is trying to meditate by persuading Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, to accept the ‘Five-Point Consensus’. The said Consensus comprises the cessation of violence, national dialogue and mediatory efforts by ASEAN.
- Cambodia has adopted a softer approach which is backed by Thailand and Laos. It aims at adjusting to the military’s refusal to compromise on its key requirements such as denial of access to Daw Suu Kyi for ASEAN mediators, and little dilution of the 2008 Constitution.
- Other ASEAN States led by Indonesia are opposed to Cambodia’s diplomacy. ASEAN member countries are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
- Myanmar-West relations: The US and the EU are unable to comprehend the dynamics of power in Myanmar. The Western policy to promote democracy and impose sanctions against the military have produced minimal results.
- Myanmar-Russia relations: Russia has refused to condemn the coup in Myanmar due to its desire to keep lucrative military contracts with the new military regime
- Myanmar-China relations: China enjoys enormous leverage in Myanmar through its control over several ethnic armed organizations, projects covered by the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the regime’s protection via veto in the Security Council, and substantial investments in Myanmar.
- Myanmar-India relations: India has done much to shape and to strengthen diplomatic efforts at the UN and through its support to ASEAN for putting Myanmar’s transition to democracy back. It provided one million doses of “Made in India” vaccines. India has to discourage a mass influx of refugees from Myanmar to India. In recent years, India in collaboration with the Maynmar forces had cut the capability of insurgent groups to endanger security in the Northeast from Myanmar soil. It does not want a resurgence. Buddhism, Business, Bollywood, Bharatnatyam and Burma teak -- these are the five Bs that frame India-Myanmar relations in popular imagination. Moving beyond this rich configuration, the relations are now acquiring greater economic weight and strategic orientation.
- Summary: Any instability in Myanmar has a direct impact on India’s internal security. India has to protect the state’s interests, guided by realism and pragmatism. Since the 2021 coup, hundreds of Myanmar citizens have crossed into the four bordering north-eastern states of India.
- EXAM QUESTIONS: (1) Stability in Myanmar is important for maintaining stability and peace in Northeast India. Discuss the challenges in India-Myanmar relations. (2) What are the five B’s of India-Myanmar relations? Elaborate.
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