Searching for an elusive peace (Afghanistan and India)

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Searching for an elusive peace (Afghanistan and India)

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• First time ever, with the Taliban: The Russians hosted the regional conference which saw all Afghan stakeholders at one table - the Taliban, Afghan authorities, China, Pak, Iran, India, US, and all the 'Stans' (K-K-T-T-U). India wasn't officially a part of peace talks.
• Intense diplomacy: Russia worked hard to get back into the Afghan game, and it has done so. It also took care not to have any joint statement issued and not even a group photo was taken.
• Reconciliation with the Taliban - a timeline:

1. Growing stronger: Post 2005, as Taliban insurgency grew stronger, Western forces (British, Germans) on the ground started cutting deals with local Taliban and ignored opium production. US was persuaded to find a political outcome.
2. Obama arrives: Obama's full review of Afghanistan in 2008 got an Army assurance to end the insurgency in 18 months. Obama sent in 40,000 more US troops (the surge) and phased drawdown post-2011 was announced.
3. Operation Enduring Freedom officially ended Dec 2014, and Afghans took over. But insurgency kept strengthening.
4. Pakistan angle: US realised that sanctuaries inside Pak will not allow insurgency to end, and even US $33 b aid to Pak had changed nothing.
5. Moneys spent: US spent $103 b in Marshall Plan for Europe (post WW II) but it spent $ 105 b in rebuilding Afghanistan.
6. Taliban in Doha: An office opened there for talks since 2013. Its flag titled 'Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan' undid the plan, and office was shut down!
7. Afghan elections 2014: As Ashraf Ghani became President, he reached out to Pak Army in 2015 for help in reconciliation. He found out that Taliban head Mullah Omar had died in 2013 itself! Mullah Akhtar Mansour had taken over.
8. Taliban grew stronger: Ghani accused Pak of waging war.
9. Quadrilateral Coordination Group, 2016: Four nations (US, Pak, China, Afghanistan) were to get Taliban to talk. But demands were big  and couldn't be met (all foreign troops to exit, Guantanamo detainees to be released, etc.) It all failed!
10. US kills MAM: In a drone strike, US eliminated Mullah Akhtar Mansour in 2016.
11. Rise of Islamic State in Afghanistan: The Russians accepted that they were talking to Taliban to counter the IS threat. This IS was the merger of IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan) and TiTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan).
12. Ghani's Kabul process: He offered unconditional dialogue offer but Taliban refused. A 3-day ceasefire in Eid 2018 happened. US also relented on "Afghan owned and Afghan led peace process".
13. Situation deteriorates: Afghan govt. controls just 50% of territory, Talibanis control at least one-sixth, and rest is contested. Afghan security forces are depleting rapidly (casualties, desertions, reluctance).
14. Trump's 2017 AfPak policy failed: He wanted more US+NATO presence, Pakistan on notice, and more Afghan capabilities. But it has all failed.
15. War has to end: US only wants to ensure that Talibanis don't look victorious as US exits.
16. Indian engagement: We are not a spoiler, but our economic engagement is praiseworthy (development partner). Indian engagement is vital, as sign of our commitment to a peaceful and stable Afghanistan.

• Summary - The bloody road in Afghanistan since 2001 has seen many ups-and-downs, and everyone now wants the war to end.

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