Aligning the triad (India's nuclear triad capabilities)

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Aligning the triad (India's nuclear triad capabilities)

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• Making deterrence robust: The INS Arihant completed a deterrence patrol in Indian Ocean recently, making our abilities more robust. It is India's first nuclear ballistic missile submarine, also called SSBN (ship submersible ballistic nuclear).
• The most survivable leg of a nuclear triad: While the land and air legs of a nuclear triad can be compromised in war, the submarine-based leg is most durable. For India, the growing threat from China and Pakistan make this more relevant.

• Missing links in Arihant: An objective assessment is warranted.

1. Lack of information: No one is told if the first patrol was with nuclear-tipped missiles or not. If not, then it is a political patrol, not defence patrol. The SSBN has zero deterrence utility in that case.
2. Range of the missiles: The K-15 missiles have a range of 750 km, which is not enough to reach any target inside Pakistan or China without getting dangerously close to their coasts. We also have a K-4 missile that has a range of 3500 km, and is under development.But INS Arihant cannot carry those, due to size. Navy will need bigger SSBNs (S-4 and S-5) for K-4. So we are a WIP at the moment.
3. The number of submarines: To maintain a credible deterrence, one sub is not enough. We need at least four more. That system is costly to maintain. So we may rely more on air and land legs of nuclear triad, especially as we do not have a "first strike" policy or "launch on warning" policy. In the long run, we may invest in naval abilities.
4. Command and control challenges: Communicating with the SSBNs without being on the radar of enemy system, while the SSBNs are deep and far away, is not easy. So for the moment, we have to be in shallower waters or rely on bastion control. That reduces our deterrence.

• Regional stability: INS Arihant impacts it, as it makes the IOR maritime competition sharper (despite the PLAN's lead). China's Jin class subs with JL-2 missiles (7,400 km range) started patrolling many years ago. PLAN frequented IOR for anti-piracy (without nukes) many a times. Arihant is a reply.
• What will Pakistan do? It will speed up submarine-building, with China's help. The BRI, and in response the Quad, is the other dimension.
• More security, more insecurity: Sadly, what a state does to make itself more secure may make it more insecure for the future. It's a long time before the actions of the three players - China, India, Pakistan - stabilise, leading to a settled minimum deterrence.
• Poor nuclear CBMs: Since nuclear confidence building measures between India and other two are poor, things are complex. Miscalculations and accidents can happen. India and Pakistan must have an "incidents at sea" agreement (like US and USSR had) to avoid accidents at sea turning into nuclear battles!
• India's nuclear command and control: The nuclear warheads in the air and land based weapons are largely under civilian control, but not so for the naval leg. Why? As no civilian is present onboard an SSBN. Its captain would be under the SFC command (a military organisation). Since naval warheads are "pre-mated" with canisterised missiles inside the SSBN, the captain will have the authority to fire these (under political go-ahead). That system is not clear.
• A long road ahead: The INS Arihant is a welcome addition, and a lot of work is pending.
• Summary - The launch of INS Arihant is the first, small step towards building a credible nuclear deterrence, but a lot of work is still pending.

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