A relationship under stress (US-Saudi relations post Khashoggi murder)

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A relationship under stress (US-Saudi relations post Khashoggi murder)

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• Murder not foul anymore: While the CIA has concluded that the Saudi crown prince MBS (Mohammed bin Salman) was responsible for the murder of the journalist Khashoggi, the President (and Secy. of State) are calling it premature, and talking about US - KSA relations and middle eastern interests.
• Vital relationship: Many in US may feel that Saudis are too vital for US interests, and a murder can be overlooked. Is that the factual reality?
• It started 1945: American President Franklin D. Roosevelt met the Saudi King Abdulaziz ibn Saud, father of KSA, and father of today's monarch Salman bin Abdulaziz. It was on a ship, in the Suez Canal, where they agreed to -

1. US would support & give military training to KSA, and  
2. KSA will provide oil and political backing to US.

• Worked just fine: It worked fine during the Cold War (1950-1991), as the Saudis were scared about communist expansion into Muslim world! The Afghanistan capture by Soviets in 1978 is an example. US wanted oil for its economic expansion, and for Europe's reconstruction, and an ally in West Asia.
• Things are different now: Soviet Union is gone. American oil dependency is less, as it is one of the top 3 oil producing nations (other two are Russia and KSA). KSA had an upper hand in 1973 when Arab nations embargoed oil sales to the West protesting their support to Isreal on Yom Kippur war.
• Saudis investing in US: They buy treasuries, and invest in private businesses. But that is out of its own interest, as it needs to diversify its investments, and take US security also back home.
• Post 9/11 world: The US is under scrutiny for supporting Wahabbis, a philosophy opposite to all American values (democracy, human rights, religious freedom, media freedom).
• Obama saw it: He continued the economic and arms-sales ties with KSA, but did not act in Syria on KSA's behest. He did the JCPOA with Iran! He wanted a "cold peace" in middle east.
• Trump reverses it all: Now Saudis are the centrepiece of US policy once more. Why? (a) To ensure Israel's security, and (b) To roll back Iranian influence. And US has extricated itself from the Iran nuclear deal.
• Saudis not helping: They lost the Syria war, and haven't won the Yemen war (Houthis are closer to Iran now). Their Qatar blockade is dramatic, and led to Qatar leaving the OPEC. Kidnapping the Lebanese PM in 2017 has strengthened the Hizbollah, an Iranian ally.
• Senate against the Yemen war: Trump may not be able to stay the course for long. Senators are accusing Trump directly for protecting the Crown Prince. The undercurrents are strong, and future Presidents may redo a lot of the relationship.
• Summary - The US has to re-assess its Saudi relationship, as things are turning sour faster than Trump may be able to handle.

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