The contours of the Kashmir move (Changes in world politics helped GoI do it easily)

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 The contours of the Kashmir move (Changes in world politics helped GoI do it easily)

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment


    • Twin actions : The GoI revoked the operative portion of Article 370, and annulled the Article 35A, dividing J&K state into two Union Territories. The GoI said it's a pure internal matter with no international comment warranted.
    • Afghanistan situation : The imminent settlement between the US and the Taliban, brokered by Pakistan, forced India to act fast, and present a "fait accompli" to Pakistan. Three dangers existed:
      1. Sept 2019 Presidential elections will be killed, or become irrelevant, harming Indian interest badly (as all candidates are known to India),
      2. The Taliban's return to power will make Pakistan very strong there, and
      3. US will maintain a small presence finally, and will need Pak help for supply routes etc., and the Trumpian offer for Kashmir mediation in July was alarming!
    • Since 1972 : The Shimla Agreement committed that "neither India nor Pakistan would unilaterally change the sitaution". But in 2019, India did. The enabling reason is the strong unilateralism we see globally, and decline in effective multilateral power (e.g. the UN).
    • UN against Pakistan : The change in ground facts in both so-called Azad Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit-Baltistan went unpunished by the UN. The terror machine of Pakistan has discredited it fully. Today, only China (out of the 5 UNSC permanent members) is upset, that too due to Aksai Chin matter.
    • Trial runs : The GoI did three trial runs to test the UN mood - 
      1. July 2014 - It called the UNMOGIP to vacate the premises in Delhi, (UN Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan),
      2. Sept 2016 - It publicly claimed the cross-border surgical strike attack post-Uri incidence, and 
      3. July 2018 - It rejected the report of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights on Kashmir.
      4. In all these, the UN did nothing. 
    • UN actions globally : The 2014 Russian control over annexed Crimea has strengthened despite UNGA resolution, and US  suffered no adverse action after changing the status of Jerusalem in Israel.
    • Populism all the way : The Kashmir decision "recaptured" the national narrative (just like the Nov. 2016 demonetisation). It's almost as if the people have directly authorised the action, and no blame comes to the govt. should anything go wrong.
    • Realpolitik and not idealism : The theme is that the useless idealism of the past is dumped in favour of hard decisions. 'Normalisation' will happen via investment influx and non-Kashmiri inflows into the Kashmir valley. The Athenian general Thucydides said "Right is only in question between equals. The strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must".
    • Summary : The Kashmir decisions were made possible by the prevailing global political climate of strong unilateralism, a weakening UN structure, and the desire to embrace realpolitik.
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                                                                                                                                                            PT's IAS Academy: The contours of the Kashmir move (Changes in world politics helped GoI do it easily)
                                                                                                                                                            The contours of the Kashmir move (Changes in world politics helped GoI do it easily)
                                                                                                                                                            Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!
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