The bilateral transformation (India-Bangladesh relations)

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 The bilateral transformation (India-Bangladesh relations)

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• Coming of age : While the Grand Alliance led by Awami League (Sheikh Hasina) was hugely victorious, a whole new generation of young voters has come of age, tired of old political discourse. They voted for a secular polity, and economic progress.
• Margin of victory : It is shocking for the opposition NUF (National Unity Front), a coalition with BNP at its core (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) and led by jurist Kamal Hossain. AL and BNP are bitter rivals. Khaleda Zia of BNP is in jail, and her fugitive son Tarique Rahman (Chair, BNP) is guiding it from London.
• Brute force : The AL won 288 of 300 directly-elected seats. The unicameral Parliament has another 50 reserved for women, elected by an electoral college of directly-elected MPs.
• Farcical elections? The NUF has termed the elections farcical, and wants a new election under a non-partisan administration. It won only 7 seats. EC has rejected the idea.
• Malpractices : No doubt, the margin of victory is suspicious. Large-scale arrests of opposition workers happened, and voter-intimidation was rife. AL threatened many opposition candidates too. But largely, things were credible.
• Fastest-growing economy : With a 7.6% GDP growth in last quarter, B'desh is one of the fastest-growing in the world.
• India-Bangladesh relations : In the past 10 years of Sheikh Hasina (AL) rule, India's relations with B'desh have only improved across the board. B'desh is part of India's efforts in "Act East Policy", and in BIMSTEC and BBIN like sub-regional groupings. 
• Specific facts :

1. Indian insurgent groups are getting no support in B'desh now
2. B'desh is largest South Asian trade partner of India (trade $9 b formal, $8 b informal, across 4100 km porous border)
3. Cooperation in connectivity, energy, security and intelligence has improved
4. Good projects like "Padma multipurpose bridge" and "Akhaura-Agartala rail link" will change connectivity.
5. India is participating in building the nuclear power plant at Rooppur, and exporting around 1100 MW power to B'desh. 
6. Duty free entry was given in 2011 to Bangladesh (under SAFTA) to help more exports into India to reduce trade deficit. Today, it exports $900 m to India, but not growing due to limited items-range.
7. SEZ for Indian firms in B'desh may come up soon.

• Trade and economic asymmetry : India has given generous LOCs (Lines of Credit) and grants, totalling upto $8 b. LOCs are commercial, grants are for social sectors. Visa regime is liberalised for Bangladeshis, who are a huge tourist group in India.
• Tackling radical Islam : AL has tackled radical Islamists with a heavy hand, and the coming years will test this resolve further.
• The Rohingya issue : It has strained B'desh's resources badly. The upcoming NRC final list can be a danger to ties if not handled deftly. A minor trouble is sharing of river waters. 
• China in South Asia : B'desh buys a lot of military hardware from China. India has given a $500 m LOC for defence purchases from here. 
• Building on the past : India and Bangladesh must build stronger relations in the future for mutual benefit.
• Summary : The robust and positive India-Bangladesh ties can be cemented further, with the landslide victory of Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League in recent elections.

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