Looming challenges to India's standing (India faces major issues in next 5 years)

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 Looming challenges to India's standing (India faces major issues in next 5 years)

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Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment

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• PM Modi in full swing : India has reached out to the world strongly post 2019 election results. From the flurry of meetings, it may seem that things are moving smoothly, forward.
• External environment totally changed now : While internally there is continuity for Mr Modi and BJP, the global political circumstances are totally changed now. The past cannot be a guide for the future.
• Major pointers :

1. Earlier, we shifted from non-alignment to multi-alignment, smoothly.
2. We improved our US relationship without harming the Russian one.
3. China relation was somehow managed without ceding anything much.
4. Indian strategic independence was maintained.

• Intense rivalries : New and more intense rivalries pose a new reality, where there is no middle ground in global politics now. Even the definition of "liberalism" is altered! (West far less liberal now)
• South Asia : Sadly, India has little or no say in any of the major outcomes in this region. India has tarred Pak with the terror brush, but that is not helping, as relations are at the lowest. India is excluded from Afghan talks now (Pak - US - Taliban - Afghans - Russia - China included!). Indian position in Nepal is precarious, and in Sri Lanka tenuous.
• India and Bhutan : These two are the only ones staying out of China's giant Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The overall slide in Asia - for India - needs to be halted in this light.
• US relationship : US may drag India into a new Cold War, against China. India may be used in conflicts with Russia, or Iran. India cannot allow that, despite being upgraded to a major defence partner (non-NATO) through the NDAA (National Defence Authorisation Act).
• Russia and China relationship : As India grows closer with the US, both these relations will be stressed. The new Russia-China axis built by Putin-Xi will impact Indian position in Asia/Eurasia.
• By 2030 : India is living upto the "Wuhan Spirit" for now, but by 2030, China would be so far ahead of India militarily and economically, that Indian position could get weaker.
• Who will be the big powers : Traditional military prowess will be secondary as straight conventional wars will be passe. Disruptive new technologies will matter the most.
• India and new tech : India needs to quickly build and ramp up its own abilities in cyber tech, AI, biotech etc. US, China, Israel, Russia etc. are doing that in a big way.
• The basic driver will be ... : And the Indian economy will drive all of this. Sadly, today, not only is there is a slowdown, even the basic data are being questioned. GDP growth of 8.5% - 9.5% is a must, but is doubtful.
• Summary : In the next 5 years, India needs robust economic growth, so that it can then build a power structure needed for Asian and global challenges.
• The global political circumstances have totally changed in the past few years, and India has to focus on economic strength and disruptive technology development fast.

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