Living on the edge (India Pakistan relations post-Pulwama)

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 Living on the edge (India Pakistan relations post-Pulwama)

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• Spiralling out of control : Given the domestic political situation in both India and Pakistan, the possibility that the border standoff can spiral suddenly out of control is a real threat. The limited air war over the LOC and subsequent events have made things complex (and beyond round 1 – Pulwama and Balakot).
• De-escalation not in sight : The joint press meet by three services in India gave little hint of de-escalation, but the tone was not of escalation either.
• So what next : There can be a clear de-escalation. If not, then -

1. we may see more fire assualts on LOC
2. small range missile attacks by both against each other -  If these do not result in deep strikes inside other's territories, or capture of pilots, and does not extend to the IB (international border), then no escalation happens.

• Balakot and its retaliation : The daring IAF raid inside Pakistan forced the Imran Khan govt. to not sit quiet. With the strike by India in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, India has raised the bar, and used the Israeli / American rule of counter-terror strike deep inside enemy territory.
• Non-military pre-emptive strike : India used this term, and made Pakistani war planners very uncomfortable because "pre-emptive" now meant India could strike anywhere inside Pakistan at will. (The 2016 'surgical strikes' were retaliatory, not pre-emptive)
• WC Abhinandan Varthaman : His release will be an additional signal about de-escalation over the LOC skies. But given domestic compulsions, the tables can turn either way now.
• A war : If a large-scale war actually happens, then it would be a long-drawn one involving attrition. The outcomes and strategies will become uncertain for both.
• Problems with de-escalation : This is the age of social media and instant communication. Hence public messaging about de-escalation can later be used to humiliate a side. Third-party mediation is tough, as Pak will not trust US now, Russia may have lost interest, and China will not favour India.
• Go the standard route : For India and Pakistan, back-channel negotiations have been the standard method. It was so during Kargil as well. A win-win can happen only then, and only a win-win will keep things low. 
• Summary : If the tension on India-Pakistan border is to be de-escalated, then a win-win is to be created through back-channel negotiations, otherwise one of the two sides will ensure that escalation happens.

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