Game of chicken in the Gulf (US Iran conflict seems possible)

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 Game of chicken in the Gulf (US Iran conflict seems possible)

Read more on - Polity | Economy | Schemes | S&T | Environment


    • Game of Chicken : This is when two powers are heading towards each other in an escalating game for leverage. It's a game theory concept. Each side thinks the other will get scared (chicken out) at some point, and move back, giving the other an edge. But what if none does? [ CONCEPT - GAME THEORY ]
    • US Iran 2019, a Game of Chicken : It started in 2018 with President Trump pulling US out of the JCPOA in 2018. Then came the US sanctions on Iran. Then came more troops to the middle east. Trump must have hoped Iran would "chicken out". The reverse seems to be happening.
    • War clouds gathering : Iran's aggression means things will go from bad to worse. Trump has said, though, that he doesn't want war. But he was unhappy with the JCPOA (under Barack Obama) because it paid Iran for not making a nuclear bomb. [ CONCEPT - JCPOA ]
    • What more does Trump want : Iran should end its ballistic missile programme, and disruptive activities in the region.
    • Impact of sanctions : The US sanctions have choked the Iranian economy. Other JCPOA members - UK, France, Germany, Russia, China and EU - did not help Iran. Even India was scared off from buying any Iranian oil. So logic was - economic misery will force Iran to surrender to American wishes.
    • Friendly, Inimical : Iran was friendly with US post 9/11 attacks, 2001. It helped with the war in Afghanistan. It hit the Taliban that entered Iran. But US later turned hostile once more. President Bush called "Iran - North Korea - Iraq" the "axis of evil".
    • JCPOA : Obama used China and Russia to get Iran to do the nuclear deal. It contained the Iranian nuclear programme significantly. Sanctions were removed. Then US-Iran cooperated in Iraq against the ISIS. But once that was over, Trump ended the JCPOA!
    • Iran's options :
      1. It can return for talks with the US, on US's terms - humiliating for the religious leaders (Ayatollahs)
      2. Wait for Trump's presidency to end, and await a new leader who renews the JCPOA (but sanctions are hurting, and Trump may re-win)
      3. Wait for the EU to keep JCPOA alive - but it did not happen. Oil and gas trade ended, although essential goods trade continued.
      4. So, finally, Iran went for "maximum resistance" to "maximum pressure".
    • Iran's careful moves : In May 2019, it gave 60 days to all to fix the deal. It told that the enrichment of Uranium will now speed up, from the allowed level of 3.67% to 20%. That is a step closer to weapons grade.
    • Trump on the backfoot : His tactics have not worked, and if Iran really attacked those tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, it's a sign of things to come. Today, any third rogue party can attack a vessel, and initiate a full-blown war. Today, it seems that we are headed for a war.  
    • Summary : The dangerous face-off in the middle east between America and Iran is now reaching its climax, and the worst can be expected.
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                                                                                                                                                          PT's IAS Academy: Game of chicken in the Gulf (US Iran conflict seems possible)
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