Foreign policy challenges five years later (NDA 3's new set of challenges in a world that's unpredictable)

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 Foreign policy challenges five years later (NDA 3's new set of challenges in a world that's unpredictable)

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• How 2019 is not 2014 : The world in 2019 is facing at least five new challenges, that didn't exist earlier. These are (a) President Trump's unpredictable policy approach, (b) Trade war between China and the US, (c) Brexit and EU's own problems, (d) a possible new arms race between Russia and the US in space /cyber /nuclear, (e) end of the Iran deal (JCPOA), and (f) Iran - KSA tensions, etc.
• BIMSTEC, not SAARC : Since relations with Pakistan are at a historic low, the 2019 swearing-in saw guests from BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). SAARC is as good as dead.
• Why dialogue is necessary with Pakistan : All communication channels are on hold, and other nations are helping defuse crisis (like the post-Balakot situation). Are we outsourcing strategic communication?
• Handling neighbourhood : In the pre-globalisation era, when China had not risen, managing neighbourhood relations was easier. Not so now. We now need broad-based consent, and not domination – for that we need multiple diplomatic efforts, and economic generosity.
• China and the US : Modi started with the earlier strategy that India had followed since Rajiv Gandhi's times - keep growing commercial, economic and cultural ties, while keep doing CBMs on boundary disputes. But Doklam 2017 was a rude wake-up call for Modi. Old policy was no longer relevant.
• Wuhan doesn't solve the problem : The Wuhan summit 2018 was a good step, but the growing India-China gap will ensure that major problems persist. Add to that the US push against China, which will force India to not stay non-aligned on this issue! 
• An unpredictable US : While Modi tried from 2014 to build a strong relationship with the US, a number of difficult issues have persisted. 

1. US waivers on Indian purchase of Iranian oil have now ended.
2. Generalised System of Preferences scheme (GSP) has been withdrawn (impacting 12% of Indian exports to US). Why? US feels India not giving enough market access.
3. Sanctions may apply if Trump acts under the CAATSA (Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act)
4. Huawei may not be allowed to sell to India (India would be forced not to buy 5G gear from it)
5. US-Taliban talks are on in Afghanistan, a bad omen for India

• China-Russia closer now : Both are drawn closer, and have forged a common front against the US. China has a full-blown rivalry with the US, and geography to protect including the Taiwan issue. Russia has the entire central Asia and Europe to manage.
• Post-ideology age of promiscuity : Due to limited resources, India cannot shape events as it deems fit. We need proper coordination and consensus-building internally to manage the situation.
• Summary : We are now in a post-ideology world of international relations, where India has to negotiate its own path with proper domestic consensus-building and coordination.

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