Everyone is afraid of data (Why statistics and reports must be made fully transparent)

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 Everyone is afraid of data (Why statistics and reports must be made fully transparent)

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• Various data related controversies in India : In 2019, we are witnessing bitter debates on the NSSO-PLFS report, but similar things happened earlier too.
• Lessons from earlier examples : There are 5 trends visible.

1. Suppression of data is a problem with all political parties - Census 2011 data on religion wasn't released till 2015. The fear of inciting communal passions in 2014 elections stopped the UPA from releasing it. The UNICEF RSOC (Rapid Survey on Children) 2013-14 was ready, but the new govt. held it back, as it showed Gujarat in poor light. Net Result? Investment in data collection goes down, like the NSS's Employment-Unemployment  surveys not conducted after 2011-12. So governments have to rely on non-comparable statistics given by other sources (EPFO etc.)
2. Genuine fear of misreporting of statistical reports - The hungry news cycle makes statistical reports vulnerable to wrong interpretation. The 2001 Census reports mis-reported that Hindu growth rate 1981-91 -- 1991-2001 was down from 25.1% to 20.3%, and for Muslims it was up from 34.5% to 36%. They forgot to mention that 1991 census excluded J & K, which if included, showed both rates declining.
3. Reports can just not be suppressed once prepared - Govts. have learnt that suppressing reports is a bigger problem! The RSOC report leaked, and The Economist magazine published a big story on it, making things uncomfortable - it compared poor malnutrition performance of Gujarat with better performance of Bihar.
4. Leaked reports fuel speculation that is dangerous - Those with access to report can end up making wrong conclusions, as happened in above case (limited interpretations).
5. Complex reality, Tough statistics, Sensitive handling : The government reports are often bare bones. Statistical reports are complex, and need deeper understanding. The Jan 2019 expose of PLFS report of NSSO showed > 50% working age population is out of labour force. But that is dominated by women  and rural folk. Actually, wage work decline in rural women was not too much, but work decline in women in family farms and family businesses was much more (trend since 2004-05 till date). Elimination of jobs happened due to mechanisation etc., which is not govt's fault. We can only fault it for not creating new jobs.

• A vicious cycle : So fear of misinterpretation leads to data suppression, which leads to speculation, that leads to suspicion, and finally bad policymaking. The only solution is total transparency and openness about it.
• Build a robust data infrastructure : In addition to data collection and report preparation, we need a whole team of analytical domain experts, to draw meaning out of these reports. 
• Summary : For many different and genuine reasons, statistics and reports are getting suppressed, leading to even deeper problems in policy-making, and calling for a change in strategy.

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