CONCEPT – SUDAN'S REVOLUTION 2019

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 CONCEPT – SUDAN'S REVOLUTION 2019

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• The seeds of the uprising : Since South Sudan’s secession in 2011, the survival of President Omar al-Bashir’s regime has been under threat. The loss of three-quarters of Sudan’s oil revenues led to severe economic crisis. At the same time, the Omar regime spent an estimated 70-80% of its revenues on security and the military. This includes the pursuit of newly-erupted conflicts in the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile states.
• Problem of corruption : Corruption is also rampant in Sudan, earning those close to the regime billions of dollars while the majority of the population is becoming more and more impoverished. Foreign assistance, such as from the Qatari, Saudi and Emirati governments, has given the regime only limited breathing space.
• Earlier protests : In September 2013, mass anti-government protests against fuel subsidy cuts were brutally repressed. As many as 185 protesters were killed with impunity. The movement learned its lesson and began to develop long-term strategies.
• Simmering discontent : In the face of years of oppression coupled with lack of opportunities, the youth became the driving force, building organisational capacity, working in the communities, and documenting abuses. Women also played a leading role, including through the No To Women Oppression campaign. They are fighting back against years of restrictions, humiliation and abuse in their daily lives and at the hands of the Islamist regime.
• December 2018 : Against this background, the outbreak of protests in the northern town of Atbara on 19 December 2018 did not come as a surprise. They were quickly followed by other well-organised and growing mobilisations. They brought together the youth movement, workers and professionals associations, and political opposition parties. They feed on popular culture, songs, reports and debates on social media.
• Reaction : The Sudanese regime has resorted to its customary crackdown. Reports of excessive force, killings of protesters by snipers reportedly trained by Russian security personnel, arbitrary arrests, detention and torture abound.
• We won’t back down : These attacks did not deter the protests but fuelled them further. As the protesters name and shame individual perpetrators and draw public opinion on their side, the regime is looking increasingly isolated.
• End of Omar’s reign: The military finally removed Omar al-Bashir, and promised a change after two years. Till then a military council will manage the government. Protestors have continuously opposed this idea, leading to more ruptures and changes at the top levels.
• West’s approach : The policy of normalising relations with al-Bashir – built on a rationale of “better the devil you know” – has ended. Their self-interest – be it US counter-terrorism intelligence-sharing, UK business interests or EU control of migration – is barely masked by the customary calls on the regime to prevent escalation and to show respect for human rights. For the EU, whitewashing the regime’s criminal militias is actually creating more migration from Sudan accompanied by gross human rights abuses.

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