America has lost the Afghan war (Trump beating a hasty retreat from Afghanistan, 2019)

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 America has lost the Afghan war (Trump beating a hasty retreat from Afghanistan, 2019)

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• "The graveyard of Empires" : This description of Afghanistan is not wrong, as history teaches.

1. First Anglo-Afghan war (1839-1842) : The British Indian Army was mauled totally by the Afghans after a small period of victory, and from a strength of 16,000, only 1 survived!
2. Soviet invasion 1979 : The Soviets had to leave after ten unsuccesful years of trying to bolster the client communist regime.
3. American entry in 2001 : The war on terror by USA is now ending, as after 17 years, it could not destroy the Taliban in Afghanistan.

• Why is Afghanistan difficult? The combination of (a) complex tribal relationships, and (b) rugged mountainous terrain make Afghanistan tough for external invaders. Geography determines destiny here.
• Historical incidents :

1. British went into Af'tan in 1839 as part of the "Great Game" when they feared that Russians would take over the region. They did not want India to be threatened (their "crown jewel"). But after all their efforts, they had to withdraw, and were massacred (all but one - William Brydon, a medical officer).
2. Soviets entered to resolve an intra-party coup, carried out their own assassinations, installing a Moscow loyalist. The US feared Soviet expansion, right when they saw Iran's 1979 Revolution, and faced a defeat in the Vietnam war. So they supported tribal warriors (the Mujahideen) alongwith Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. In 1989, the Soviets returned.
3. America attacked the Taliban regime in 2001, and claimed it would launch the "War on Terror" against all terror groups. Though the Taliban were toppled soon, and Afghans got an elected govt. (President Hamid Karzai), but today US realises it's no longer winning. The Taliban have returned. Even large-scale air attacks haven't deterred them. Stalemate continues. The war is unsustainable.

• What happens now? The US thinks that the Taliban promise of "no safe haven for terror groups in Afghanistan" is believable!  The Taliban are not willing to talk to the Afghan government, considering it illegitimate. And once US troops are out, anything can happen.
• A lost war : This lost war will reverberate for a long time, as the Taliban now seek to recoup the price they have paid over 17 years.
• Summary : The lost war in Afghanistan has prompted Trump to pull America out, and it reinforces the problems faced by external powers in trying to control any war in that nation.

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