After the inevitable exit (US moving out of Afghanistan)

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 After the inevitable exit (US moving out of Afghanistan)

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    • US pulling out : It seems near-certain that the US may pull out almost all troops from Afghanistan before the 2020 election process commences. Trump has said that India, Pakistan and Russia must supply more manpower, and even mocked India.
    • It started in 2001 : The 9/11 attacks in US brought American right into Afghanistan, where it tried to bring democracy and prosperity. The Taliban could not be subdued, and now US wants to exit honourably. That will impact India immediately.
    • US "South Asia policy for Afghanistan" discarded : Trump defined it in 2017 as a policy with 3 aspects - (a) US troops would return only after conditions permitted, (b) US would put Pak on notice for helping the Taliban and US will act militarily against it, and (c) the policy will be based on deeper partnership with India. US was committed to an "Afghan-owned, Afghan-led" peace process. 
    • It is all changed now : Sept. 2018 saw special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad being appointed for talks with Taliban as US could not wait for any more time for military actions, given the bloodbath going on. Afghan forces endured maximum losses in May-Sept. 2018 (post 2001). The special envoy started direct talks with the Taliban, cutting out the Afghan NUG govt. in Kabul.
    • National Unity Govt. Kabul : President Ashraf Ghani wasn't in the loop during the first talks in Qatar. Trump thanked PM Imran Khan for helping, instead of berating Pakistan! This rattled President Ghani who appointed two hardliners (on Taliban and Pak) as his Defence and Interior Ministers. The rift was visible.
    • James Mattis leaves : He had authored the US South Asia policy, but resigned and left. He was India's friend who got India the waiver on Chabahar and Iran oil purchases. They may be at risk now.
    • Shaky democracy : The delayed Afghan parliamentary elections' results aren't declared yet, and Presidential elections stand delayed. Other reforms are pending too. This is a question on the State's ability to do all this effectively.
    • What next for India? We have to be ready when US finally leaves. Trump wants to curtail "Pax Americana" everywhere in the world, and hence welcomes Indian investment in Afghanistan.
    • Space for regional players : US withdrawal has allowed Iran and allies more space in Syria, Saudis more space in Yemen and Russia and Pakistan in Afghanistan. Pak anyway is with China.
    • What we can, and cannot do : India cannot offer military bases to the US. We have abandoned SAARC in favour of subregional groupings like BIMSTEC, BBIM and IORA. That is cutting Afghanistan away from India also. India must build its own Afghan strategy, helping them as per their needs not our ambitions.
    • Graveyard of Empires : Afghanistan is known thus! Every world power was forced to withdraw at some point or other - be it the British (the first Anglo-Afghan war 1839-42), or the Soviets (1980s) or the Americans (2001 onwards).
    • Summary : The Afghan situation is beyond American control now, as Trump decides to withdraw, and India must focus on building its own regional strategy.
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                                                                                                                                                    PT's IAS Academy: After the inevitable exit (US moving out of Afghanistan)
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                                                                                                                                                    Excellent study material for all civil services aspirants - begin learning - Kar ke dikhayenge!
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